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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Dec-04
United Nations report says skyrocketing hunger problem is solvable with money

Web Log - December, 2004

United Nations report says skyrocketing hunger problem is solvable with money

Unfortunately, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) is wrong.

According to FAO's Annual Hunger Report for 2004:

With the number of hungry people in the world rising to 852 million in the 2000-2002 period, up by 18 million from the mid-1990s, the human and economic costs of hunger will only increase if the trend is not reversed. The total includes 815 million hungry people in the developing countries, 28 million in the countries in transition and 9 million in the industrialized countries.

The increase from 18 million to 852 million in just 5 to 7 years indicates that hunger and poverty are skyrocketing, and may be approaching some sort of tipping point.

Another UN web site shows the countries where hunger and malnutrition are the greatest:

Hot Spots in Worldwide Hunger <font size=-2>(Source: UN)</font>

Hot Spots in Worldwide Hunger (Source: UN)

On the World Food Programme web site, it's an interactive map that lets you zoom in on any country of interest. It shows where hunger is the greatest.

According to the UN World Food Programme, "There is enough food in the world to feed everyone. Yet malnutrition and hunger still afflict one out of every seven people on earth," and the following are the reasons:

Many poor people do not have the money to buy food.

Some people live in such remote places that the food market is too far away or there is no road or means of getting there.

Other poor people do not have the land, seeds or the proper tools to cultivate crops.

For those who can grow food, insects, drought, floods and war often destroy crops.

Many people don't understand the importance of a balanced diet of cereals, vegetables, meats, dairy products and other items.

Unfortunately, the UN analysis isn't true. Yes, technically there may be enough food in the world to feed everyone, but as a practical matter there isn't, since a surplus of wheat in France would not be much help for the poor people of Mongolia, where 40% of the population are undernourished.

As we discussed in our analysis of the "Green Revolution vs Malthus Effect," the population of the world is growing faster, possibly much faster, than the amount of food. We've estimated that the food supply grows at the rate of 0.96% per year, while worldwide population growth exceeds 1.25% per year, and is 2-4% in some countries -- usually the poorest countries.

[Correction: UN figures show that population growth has been 1.72% since 1950, not 1.25%.]

This is an iron fact of the human condition. It's been true throughout history, and it will continue to be so for as long as humans are on the earth: Women will continue to have children faster than available food, and women in the poorest countries will have more children than women in wealthier countries.

We've made the following estimate: We start by assuming that in 1950, after all the deaths in WW II, the population of the earth is "just right" for the amount of food available per capita. Since the food supply grows at 0.96% per year, we can compute what the population should be today.

According to the UN, the world population in 1950 was 2.5 billion. Multiplying this by (1.0096^55), we get 4.2 billion, which should be the population of the earth in 2005, 55 years later. But in fact, the world population in 2005 is 6.5 billion.

That means that we have roughly 2/3 as much food per person today as we did in 1950. And it gets worse every hour, every day, every week, every month, every year. As I said, this is an iron fact of the human condition, and we call it the "Malthus Effect," because it was first described by Thomas Roberts Malthus in 1798.

If a man can't feed his family, then he has every reason to go to war. In fact, in many societies the best way to get fed is to be in the army, and often you can send your salary back to your family so they can eat.

Even worse, if a man can't feed his family, then he'll blame someone wealthier, and hate that person. If that person is an American or an Israeli, then he'll be motivated to go to war against America or Israel.

For those who don't believe the conclusions of this web site, then you should understand that the figures are given are just about as close to a mathematical proof as you can get that we're headed for a world war. It's been that way throughout history. In this case, the 6.5 billion people on earth will be reduced to 3 or 4 billion. Once the war is over, there'll be prosperity everywhere, since there'll be plenty of food again, just like there was in 1950. Then the cycle will begin again. (9-Dec-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Dec-04 United Nations report says skyrocketing hunger problem is solvable with money

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Dec-04
United Nations report says skyrocketing hunger problem is solvable with money