	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Dec-04
Tough talk, little action on Darfur

Web Log - December, 2004

Tough talk, little action on Darfur

A spate of news stories are decrying fact that nobody's doing anything about the Darfur genocide.

A story on allAfrica.com begins by mocking the United Nations:

THE first two United Nations resolutions on Darfur were so threatening it was reasonable to expect decisive action from the special UN Security Council meeting in Nairobi, Kenya, on November 18 and 19. But, as is habitual for the UN, little came of the tough talk.

An article on csmonitor.com points out that things have been getting much worse in the last few months:

"Attacks against civilians are increasing, humanitarian space is decreasing, and the Sudanese government's strategy ... has succeeded in muddying the waters as the conflict gets more complex," says John Prendergast with the nonprofit International Crisis Group.

When I first discussed the Darfur issue six months ago, in a piece entitled, "Darfur genocide: The UN is completely irrelevant," I concluded, "One thing that Generational Dynamics tells us is that this kind of genocide is a force of nature, and that the UN can no more stop it than they can stop a typhoon."

This is in contrast to my repeated predictions that Iraq would NOT spiral into a major uprising or major civil war. The difference, as I've explained many, many times, is that Darfur is in a generational crisis period, and Iraq is in a generational awakening period. That's why I could make both predictions with such assurance, and why both predictions came true.

I was musing about this fact yesterday, when I was speaking with a couple of co-workers on my "real job" as an IT consultant, where both of them were telling me that I don't know what I'm talking about. I don't know what it takes to prove to people that I have a track record. I've been posting very specific predictions on this web site for almost two years. Many of them have come true. Some of them are still "pending," and we'll have to see if they come true. (They will.) And none of them have turned out to be wrong.

I'm sorry, dear reader, but I feel like whining today. My record in forecasting the future on this web site has been nothing short of sensational -- much more successful than I would have believed possible three years ago, before I started researching and developing the Generational Dynamics methodology, and discovered to my own amazement that it actually works. And yet I can't get any support or traction for Generational Dynamics or this web site, though I do greatly appreciate the several hundred of you who read this web site on a daily or regular basis. Well, I guess it must be the fault of my sunny personality.

I do have some news. I've almost completed a first draft of my next book, tentatively titled, Generational Dynamics for Historians. Within the next few weeks I'll be making the text of the new book available online. (Actually, it's already online at a secret URL, hee hee.)

The new book explains the historical analysis and forecasting methodologies in detail, and shows how they're applied to dozens of societies, regions and nations throughout thousands of years of history. It will describe the previous work on generations on which Generational Dynamics is based, and show how the theory has changed, expanded and advanced. It will even address other methods that historians have used to attempt to find patterns in history, and why these methods, like Kondratiev Cycles, have all failed, and how Generational Dynamics fully explains and subsumes them in a very elegant way.

So if you're interested in history, then watch for that, coming soon to a computer screen in your neighboohood. (10-Dec-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Dec-04 Tough talk, little action on Darfur

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Dec-04
Tough talk, little action on Darfur