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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Dec-04
Sunday's Gaza bombing a turning point for Palestine peace plan

Web Log - December, 2004

Sunday's Gaza bombing a turning point for Palestine peace plan

Palestinian militia group Hamas claimed credit for major terrorist attack, that killed four Israeli soldiers. Hamas promised that the attacks will continue.

Prior to Yasser Arafat's death, the international belief was that only Arafat was standing in the way of a peace agreement, and that once he was gone, a moderate Palestinian leader could bring peace.

The complaint about Arafat is that he refused to bring Palestinian terrorists to justice. That's why today's terrorist act is such a major turning point.

Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, was Arafat's aide, and is now the de facto Palestinian leader. He's expected to win the election for Palestinian president on January 9.

So what's Abbas going to do now? Will he crack down on the Hamas leaders who perpetrated today's bombing, and are claiming credit for it? If he doesn't, then he'll reveal himself as no different from Arafat. If he does, he'll infuriate Hamas, and a lot of other Palestinians as well.

There's also a great deal of Palestinian politics going on. Abbas is head of Fatah, the militia group that Arafat founded. Hamas, which perpetrated today's attack, is essentially a competitor to Fatah. Today's attack reveals that Hamas is willing to use violence as a weapon against Fatah as well as Israel, since Fatah will be shown impotent when it fails to bring Hamas under control.

Incidentally, Sunday's attack is a major embarassment to Israel's IDF (security forces). The bombing came from 1500 kg (3300 pounds) of explosives inside a tunnel 600 meters (0.37 miles) that the Hamas operatives have been digging for four months. This represents a massive intelligence failure for the IDF, whose leaders will be subject to the same type of political criticism as America's CIA leaders are.

Ironically, Abbas received a gift on Sunday, when Marwan Barghouti withdrew from the election race, virtually guaranteeing that Abbas will win on January 9.

Journalists are speculating that Barghouti, who is also a member of Fatah, made the move out of kindness to Abbas, so as not to split the Fatah movement. That sounds like wishful thinking to me.

Abbas is a member of Palestine's "old guard" generation, who grew up during the 1940s genocidal war between Jews and Arabs, and willing to compromise to prevent a similar war. Barghouti is a member of the "new guard" younger generation, born after that war, with no personal memory of it, and no fear of repeating it.

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

There has been a clear generational split among Palestinians for a long time, with Arafat's "old guard" becoming increasingly less popular. A more likely explanation is that the 49 year old Barghouti didn't want to run for President because he was likely to win, and then he'd have to face problems like Sunday's Hamas blast; better to wait until Abbas fails and then take over.

Many Palestinians in Barghouti's generation and younger generations feel like radical Muslims in other countries, who deeply resent having Israel in their midst, and will not rest until the small red dot hear the middle of the adjoining map is wiped out.

Whatever the reason for Barghouti's withdrawl, we've been predicting for a long time that no Mideast peace plan will succeed, and that the Palestinians and Israelis will re-fight the genocidal 1940s war, with almost mathematical certainty. (13-Dec-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Dec-04 Sunday's Gaza bombing a turning point for Palestine peace plan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Dec-04
Sunday's Gaza bombing a turning point for Palestine peace plan