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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 02-Jan-05
Pakistan "Black Day" protests fail

Web Log - January, 2005

Pakistan "Black Day" protests fail

Continuing a worldwide trend of increased militarization and police power, President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan reneged yesterday on a promise that he made in 2003 to relinguish some of the power he obtained by force in 1999.

Pakistan

Pakistan

Musharraf seized power in 1999 in Pakistan through a bloodless coup, and was highly criticized by America and the West for doing so. But everything changed on 9/11/2001, when his cooperation became an essential part of America's war to remove the Taliban in Afghanistan. Musharraf provided that cooperation, but in doing so, he angered hard-core Islamic extremists in Pakistan.

Musharraf was both the civilian head of government, and was also head of the military. Things came to a head in November, 2003, when political opposition forced Musharraf to promise to give up one role or the other in January, 2005.

Now Musharraf has reneged on that promised. In a televised speech to the nation on Thursday, he accused his opponents of "threatening democracy," and said, "I have decided to retain both offices... any change in internal or external policies can be extremely dangerous for Pakistan."

In other words, Musharraf is keeping his extraordinary powers, and he's giving national security as the reason.

This is what's going on in a number of other countries. It's happened in America (Patriot Act and Homeland Security), and it's happened in Russia (Putin has seized control of local governments). There are calls for additional police powers in countries around the world, including the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, China and Japan. This is typical of the approach to a major war during a generational crisis period.

These moves toward centralized power are not being opposed by the people of the countries in which it's occurring. The "antiwar" movement in America has failed to materialize, although many pundits predicted it would, and Russia's Putin still has the support of most Russians as he assumes greater power.

The same is happening in Pakistan, as was shown on Saturday. Musharraf's opponents, An alliance of Islamic parties and other groups, called for massive anti-Musharraf rallies on New Year's Day.

It's not surprising that most Pakistanis continue to support Musharraf through his continuing aggregation of power. Musharraf has survived three recent assassination attempts, and the Pakistan government ordered a ban on all public gatherings in October, following a series of bombings in a conflict between Pakistan's majority Sunni Muslim population versus its minority Shi'a population.

That's why the rallies were a failure, drawing only hundreds of protestors, instead of the thousands that organizers had hoped for.

The rallies were held to mark the anniversary of "black day," 57 years ago (October 27, 1947), when India invaded Kashmir, giving as a reason need to prevent an invasion by Kashmir. The Kashmir region has been the subject of continuing conflict between Muslim Pakistan and Hindu India.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new major war between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region. We'll be watching in 2005 to see how the situation develops. (02-Jan-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 02-Jan-05 Pakistan "Black Day" protests fail

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 02-Jan-05
Pakistan "Black Day" protests fail