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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 04-Jan-05
Israeli forces kill 8 Palestinians, and Abbas calls Israel the "Zionist enemy"

Web Log - January, 2005

Israeli forces kill 8 Palestinians, and Abbas calls Israel the "Zionist enemy"

Things appear quickly to be returning to "normal" in post-Arafat Palestine, as the level of violence, both verbal and missile, has escalated in the last few days.

Israeli tanks on Tuesday fired missiles at Palestinians suspected of being the militants who had fired mortars at Israelis. The Israeli missiles ended up killing 7 Palestine children.

Mahmoud Abbas, who is campaigning for Palestinian President and is expected to win the election on Sunday, said, "We are praying for the souls of the martyrs who were killed today by the shells of the Zionist enemy."

The killing of Palestinian children is extremely infuriating to the Palestinians, and the "Zionist enemy" rhetoric is extremely offensive to the Israelis.

This kind of violence was common before the November 11 death of Yasser Arafat, but had been less common since then.

They hadn't ended entirely, of course. Just 3 weeks ago, I called a major Hamas terrorist attack on Israelis a "turning point" for the peace process, but it was up to the Palestinians, not the Israelis, to stop such violence. I predicted that the violence would not be stopped, and I'm not surprised that it hasn't been.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon complained about the same thing in a press conference with Tony Blair on December 22. In response to a question about peace process, Sharon said, "[It] depends very much on the Palestinians. By now we don't see even the slightest step taken by the Palestinians. ... [T]hey are not doing even the slightest effort, because it is not a problem of forces, they have in the Gaza district 30,000 armed security people, under the control of the Palestinian Authority. We would have expected that it is not to start now, it is a dismantling of those terrorist organisations, at least they will make an effort to prevent deploying of those mortars and rockets that attack our towns and settlements on both sides of the border, I would have expected they will do that. But after the elections I believe that they have to start to take all the necessary steps ... that they committed themselves in the past to, and then we will be able to move forward. It depends upon them."

When Sharon says that "we don't see even the slightest step" and "it depends on them," he's saying that we shouldn't expect any further concessions from Israel.

When Abbas uses the emotionally laded words "Zionist enemy," the strongest language he's used since Arafat's death, he's saying, "Don't expect me to do anything about the Palestinian militias."

Recent American policy in the Mideast has always been based on the assumption that it was Yasser Arafat who was the terrorist-in-chief who refused to accept peace. Politicians in Washington, London, and elsewhere have the conceit that it's politicians like them that determine policy. Generational Dynamics says that such policies come from the people, not from the politician. If the Palestinian people had wanted peace under the terms that have been offered, then they would have forced Arafat to accept those terms.

Instead, we're seeing the opposite right before our eyes: The Palestinian people are forcing Abbas to move to the positions that Arafat took.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a major new genocidal crisis war in the next few years between Israelis and Palestinians, and that it will engulf the whole region. I've speculated, since 2002, that it would be the death of Arafat that would trigger the chain of events that would lead to such a war, within one to two years following Arafat's death.

We're now watching those steps take place. Indeed, once Sunday's election is over, things might very well become worse very quickly, within a few weeks or months. The reason is that hopes and expectations are unreasonably high right now, among the Israelis and Palestinians, and also in Washington. After Sunday, it will become clear very quickly that things are not going to change.

There is one thing that might postpone such a war: A lot of money. Well, it seems that the Bush administration is considering a plan to double American aid to Palestinians, from $200 million per year to $400 million. I'm not sure how much time $200 million can buy you in a situation like this, but it should buy a little. (04-Jan-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 04-Jan-05 Israeli forces kill 8 Palestinians, and Abbas calls Israel the "Zionist enemy"

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 04-Jan-05
Israeli forces kill 8 Palestinians, and Abbas calls Israel the "Zionist enemy"