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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 08-Jan-05
How do unrealistically high expectations affect the world?

Web Log - January, 2005

How do unrealistically high expectations affect the world?

Hopes are sky-high as Palestinians go to the polls on Sunday to choose a new leader to replace the late Yasser Arafat as leader of the Palestinian Authority.

If the pre-election polls are correct, the winner will be Arafat's former aide, Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen.

Abbas has been doing what politicians do -- flip-flopping from day to day, depending on his audience. One day, he's referring to Israel as the "Zionist enemy," and promising the Palestinians the "right of return" -- that Palestinians will be able to return to the land that they lost in 1949 and 1967 wars. And he's promising a Palestinian nation next to Israel, with Jerusalem as its capital.

The next day, he's more moderate (in Western eyes). He's promising to rid Palestine of terrorists, and even punish Palestinians who are caught carrying an unlicensed handgun. He's also promising the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Palestinian lands.

He can't carry out any of these promises of course. If he seriously tries to stop the terrorists, then he'll be killed. And Israel will never agree to a "right of return" for many reasons -- including the fact that Israel is already turning into a country with a majority of Arabs and a minority of Jews.

So hopes are astronomically high - among the Palestinians and Israelis, and in London and Washington.

What will happen in the months to come, when it turns out that expectations won't be met -- when Hamas, the militia group which refuses to endorse the election or any ceasefire with Israel -- continues its terrorist attacks and is not stopped by Abbas, or when Israel fails to eject all the Jewish settlers from Gaza as promised? What will happen then?

We're in the midst of a number of significant elections, and people's expectations are an important issue surrounding all of them.

Prior to the American Presidential election, I described how unrealistic expectations were worldwide that things would change under a Kerry administration, and would even change under a second Bush administration, because of changes in the cabinet. It turns out that all major crisis-era catastrophes (Panic of 1857, 1861 Civil War, crash of 1929, 1941 Pearl Harbor, and 9/11/2001) have occurred in the year following a Presidential election. The hypothesis is these events were reactions to widespread disappointment from high expectations that were built up during the election campaign, and that "something big" may happen in 2005.

The same sort of speculation applies to other elections:

Russia, Europe and America were cautiously hopeful that the December 26 Ukraine election would heal the extremely bitter split between East and West. The "rebel" candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, won the election, much to the alarm of Eastern Ukrainians and Russia. Ukraine has been mostly "on hold" since the election, mostly because of preparations for the Russian Orthodox Christmas, which was celebrated two days ago on January 6. Now that Christmas is over, the political session will be in full swing.

Today's Palestinian election has generated enormously high expectations worldwide, as we've described. The next few weeks and months will reveal the result.

The Iraqi elections are scheduled for January 30, although there's a lot of pressure to postpone them. Many people are still hoping that the American forces can withdraw after these elections, or at least that the insurgency terrorist attacks will decrease. as we discussed last year, withdrawal from Iraq will remain impossible, and there's no reason to believe that the level of insurgency will do anything but increase (but there will be no civil war).

Let's give an example. We now know that North Korea has been mobilizing for war since April. There have been some news reports that indicate that George Bush's re-election has been a big disappointment to President Kim Jong-il. He had been hoping for a John Kerry victory in November, and then a lot more more monetary support from America. Such support obviously will not be provided by a second Bush administration (and, incidentally, would not have been provided under a Kerry administration), and the result may be a decision to continue the mobilization. (08-Jan-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 08-Jan-05 How do unrealistically high expectations affect the world?

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 08-Jan-05
How do unrealistically high expectations affect the world?