	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Jan-05
Brent Scowcroft predicts an "incipient civil war" for Iraq

Web Log - January, 2005

Brent Scowcroft predicts an "incipient civil war" for Iraq

Pundits are returning to wishful thinking as the January 30 election approaches

Listening to the journalists, pundits and high-priced analysts on today's Sunday morning news shows can make your head spin, as one pundit after another predicts disaster in Iraq in a different way.

One pundit says the Sunnis won't come out to vote because they're a minority. Another says the Shi'ites won't come out to vote because they're anti-American. Another says that everyone will be too terrorized to vote. Another says that even if everyone votes, the election will still be defective, because Iraq is an "occupied land." And finally, the election will be a disaster because the insurgents will stage a series of huge, "spectacular" terrorist attacks on election day.

Every one of these predictions is complete hot air. The pundits don't have any idea what they're talking about, but they'll say any dumb thing that pops into their minds to get on television. There isn't a single one of the above predictions that's based on any sustainable evidence. If any one of these predictions comes true, it'll be by chance.

Most of the discussions centered around Thursday speech by former national security adviser Brent Scowcroft, who served under the former President Bush, and a friend of the Bush family. In the speech, delivered at a luncheon hosted by the New America Foundation.

According to the Washington Post article,

"The Iraqi elections, rather than turning out to be a promising turning point, have the great potential for deepening the conflict," Scowcroft said. He said he expects increased divisions between Shiite and Sunni Muslims after the Jan. 30 elections, when experts believe the government will be dominated by the majority Shiites.

Scowcroft predicted "an incipient civil war" would grip Iraq and said the best hope for pulling the country from chaos would be to turn the U.S. operation over to NATO or the United Nations -- which, he said, would not be so hostilely viewed by Iraqis.

Looking at this text, you have to wonder at the level of total nonsense spoken by supposedly intelligent people. His "solution," turning the operation over to NATO or the U.N., is impossible because neither organization would ever accept it, and even if one did, why would that stop the insurgencies? You'd have to be a high-priced analyst to say anything as dumb as that.

But the heart of Scowcroft's argument is that of an "incipient civil war" in Iraq. I have to laugh at the word "incipient," which the dictionary defines as "beginning to come into being or to become apparent."

Pundits have been predicting an Iraqi civil war for two years, so I guess you'd have to say that a civil war has been "incipient" for at least that long.

I keep wondering what they're talking about. There has been a car bombing every day or so for the last few months. Now these car bombings are horrible. But a car bombing is not a war.

We know what a civil war would be. It would be masses of Sunnis picking up guns, going into Shi'ite strongholds, and killing the people there. Or it would mean the opposite - Shi'ites going out and killing Sunnis. Or it would mean a Kurdish army marching south to capture Baghdad. You'd think that the journalists, pundits and high-priced analysts would understand the difference between that and a car bombing, but those morons don't seem to have a clue.

As we've been saying repeatedly for two years, a civil war in Iraq is literally IMPOSSIBLE. It can't happen, because only one generation has passed since the end of the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and it has never happened in history that a civil war has begun so soon after a crisis war.

That's not to say that there won't be a great deal of trouble in Iraq. Iraq is currently at the beginning of a generational awakening period. Awakening periods are characterized by enormous political turmoil, and we should expect a lot of political conflict between Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds after the election. Hopes for an American withdrawal in 2005 won't happen, but there won't be any civil war. (09-Jan-05) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Jan-05 Brent Scowcroft predicts an "incipient civil war" for Iraq

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Jan-05
Brent Scowcroft predicts an "incipient civil war" for Iraq