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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-05
Russia ejects international patrols from Russia-Georgia border

Web Log - January, 2005

Russia ejects international patrols from Russia-Georgia border

As an act of defiance, Russia has vetoed continuation of an international peacekeeping force that's been stationed since 1999 on the mountainous border between the Russian province of Chechnya and the Republic of Georgia. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) had performed the monitoring.

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia, Ingushetia and Chechnya. Ukraine is above the Black Sea just to the left of the map's left edge

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia, Ingushetia and Chechnya. Ukraine is above the Black Sea just to the left of the map's left edge

European and Georgian officials have condemned ending the mission, saying that doing so reduces the region's stability.

This is a move of defiance by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has vigorously condemned the West ignoring the danger of terrorism to Russia in favor of politically correct human rights. Putin has also condemned the OSCE as ineffectual

Russia has been the victims of terrorist attacks by Shamil Basayev, a Muslim warlord from Chechnya, who has taken credit for the series of terrorist acts which brought down two passenger planes, and killed hundreds of children and adults in a massacre in Beslan.

Following this series of attacks, Putin has promised preemptive revenge against international terrorists. Russia's threats have alarmed the entire Eastern Asian region, including Georgia, Turkey, and Roumania. Many Western countries have called on Putin to negotiate with the Chechen terrorists; Putin angrily rejected these suggestions, and suggested sarcastically that America should start negotiating with Osama bin Laden.

Ejecting the OSCE is seen as a follow-on to Putin's promise of pre-emptive revenge against international terrorists in other countries, especially Georgia. Putin has accused Georgia of harboring Chechen terrorists fleeing across the border from Chechnya into Georgia. Georgia has denied this, and the OSCE has said that it hasn't detected any such fleeing terrorists, which is why Putin has called the OSCE ineffectual.

By removing the OSCE monitors, Putin will now feel free to make preemptive strikes on alleged Chechen targets on Georgian soil. This could inflame the Chechen war even further, to the point where it might engulf the entire region.

The Caucasus region is one of the six most dangerous regions of the world right now. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's even more dangerous than the Palestine region, since it's farther into a generational crisis period. It's a major front line in the centuries old war between Orthodox Christians and Muslims, and it's a breeding ground for major Russian rebellions and civil wars that have occurred in the past. (12-Jan-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-05 Russia ejects international patrols from Russia-Georgia border

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-05
Russia ejects international patrols from Russia-Georgia border