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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Jan-05
Tens of thousands protesting benefit reductions in cities across Russia

Web Log - January, 2005

Tens of thousands protesting benefit reductions in cities across Russia

Putin may be facing a serious political crisis, thanks to a restructuring of federal benefits that affect the vast majority of families in the country.

The benefit structure was set up during the Soviet area, following the Communist maxim: From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

There were many, many people with a need: the elderly pensioners, war veterans, the handicapped, low-income families, and other groups considered socially vulnerable. In fact, about half of Russia's 145 million people were receiving a variety of benefits, including free public transportation, free medicines, free treatment a health resorts, free local telephone service, and discounts on housing and residential utilities.

Almost all these benefits were canceled on December 31, and replaced with payments of $15 to $100 per month, way too little to replaced the lost benefits, according to the protesters.

And the protests may be only just beginning. On February 1, the pensioners will receive their first communal housing services bills -- bills for such things as heat, electricity, gas and water. These bills alone may exceed the monthly payments, and will certainly lead to even more mass protests.

It's ironic that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be held directly responsible for these changes, thanks to a law that Putin signed last month scrapping direct regional elections, giving himself the right to nominate governors with the approval of regional parliaments, along with the right to dismiss them.

Prior to this law, people might have held the regional governors responsible for the pension reductions, but since Putin now controls the governors, Putin is the man to blame.

In fact, Putin is being blamed for several things these days. While still popular, his leadership is being questioned more and more, thanks to last September's Beslan school hostage massacre and his humliating failure in openly supporting the losing candidate in the recent Ukraine election.

Ever since the Kremlin began legal moves to take over the oil giant Yukos, I've been saying that Putin is following in Lenin's footsteps, by appearing to be nationalizing businesses and appropriating their assets for the Kremlin. Lenin led the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution which was followed by a decade of massive civil war that killed tens of millions of Russians, a civil war that Generational Dynamics predicts will be refought.

Yesterday I posted an analysis indicating that China appears to be approaching a major civil war. This conclusion was based on a variety of factors, including the increasing number of mass riots, a huge migrant worker population, big income disparities, and an unraveling of the social structure.

My reading is that Russia's social unrest from these pensioner protests is not anywhere nearly as bad as the social unrest from the Chinese riots. China is much closer to a civil war, in my opinion, than Russia is, though of course that could change rapidly if the protests greatly expand next month.

That's not to say that Russia is free from conflict - far from it. In the Caucasus, the war with Chechnya is in its tenth year, and the level of tension with the Republic of Georgia has been increasing, especially since Putin vetoed continuation of the international peacekeeping force along the border.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new major war in the Caucasus, and that the Russian civil war of the 1920s will be refought. One possible scenario is that a larger Caucasus war will spiral out of control into a full-scale Russian civil war. One way or another, the Caucasus is still possibly the most dangerous region in the world today. (17-Jan-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Jan-05 Tens of thousands protesting benefit reductions in cities across Russia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Jan-05
Tens of thousands protesting benefit reductions in cities across Russia