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Former Putin allies are calling for a vote of no-confidence, thanks to thousands publicly protesting a new law that removes "in kind benefits," such as free medicine, transportation and housing for pensioners and disadvantaged groups, and replaces them with an increase in cash benefit payments.
With the protests spreading across the country in their second week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the amount of the cash benefit increase will be more than doubled.
As [[**Error** Macro '=inc' is illegal **]] the protests so far seem far from being a serious threat to Putin's political strength, though the payment increase has the smell of desperation. His former allies in the Communist Party are agitating for a vote of no confidence in the Duma, and the worst of the protests should come at the beginning of February, when pensioners will receive substantially higher housing bills, and we should know by then what impact the protests will have.
The interesting question is this: How will Putin react if the protests grow and the no-confidence vote shows signs of succeeding.
As I've said in the case of the nationalization of Yukos assets, Putin appears to be following in the steps of Nicolai Lenin prior to the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. Putin does not appear to me to be the kind of guy who'd step down easily if threatened with a vote of no confidence.
Putin is not heavy handed. His nationalization of Yukos was very
crafty, and he's trod carefully in problems with Ukraine and Georgia.
If the pension reform protests blossom into a major crisis next
month, we'll see how deep Putin's steely determination goes.
(19-Jan-05)
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