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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Jan-05
A look at President Kennedy's 1961 inaugural address

Web Log - January, 2005

A look at President Kennedy's 1961 inaugural address

On President Bush's inauguration day, it's well to remember that life is what happens while you're making other plans.

President George W. Bush will be making his second inaugural address later today. One of the best remembered inaugural addresses is that given by President John F. Kennedy on Friday, January 20, 1961. It began as follows:

And here's how it ended:

When reading President Kennedy's address, in which he describes how much the world had changed, it's well to remember how much the world has changed since then.

Kennedy was leading a nation that had beaten the Great Depression and had beaten the Nazis in World War II, a world which had tested both America's existence and America's way of life. For Kennedy, the world was a very dangerous place, and the hard-won peace following WW II could be destroyed at any time the Soviet Union and Communism, which he considered to be as evil and dangerous and Naziism.

Kennedy himself was a WW II hero, and like all heroes, his goal was to prevent anything like that from ever happening again, and that meant not appeasing the Communists the way that those in the West had initially appeased the Nazis. That led to the Vietnam War, which confounded Kennedy's words:

In fact, the 1960s were in a "generational awakening" period. During generational awakening periods, there's always a "generation gap," a major political clash between the hero generation from the previous crisis war, and the new generation born after the war, having no personal memories of the horrors of that war, and unwilling to support the austere compromises and rules that the hero generation has devised to prevent any such war from ever happening again. The result is that America was not willing to "pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship," and America lost that war.

Today, the generational awakening period is long behind us, and we're in a new generational crisis period, approaching a new "clash of civilizations" world war that will be far worse than WW II. Ironically, Kennedy's words are much more relevant today than they were in 1961.

As we wait to hear what President Bush will say in his inaugural address, it's well to remember that things may not go according to Bush's plans, just as they didn't go according to Kennedy's plans.

It's also worthwhile to remember what I predicted last year. When polled on who the greatest Presidents have been, historians' top choices are from America's previous generational crisis periods: Abraham Lincoln from the Civil War, inaugurated in 1861, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt from WW II, inaugurated in 1933, 72 years later. Great events make great Presidents, not vice-versa. Today, in 2005, 72 years have passed again, and we're on the verge of many new great events. Last year I said that whoever won the election (Bush or Kerry) would be America's next great President, and I have no reason today to doubt that prediction. (20-Jan-05) Permanent Link
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