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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-05
Some notes on current news in Darfur, Palestine and Ukraine

Web Log - January, 2005

Some notes on current news in Darfur, Palestine and Ukraine

It appears that the genocidal crisis war in Darfur, Sudan, may be ending.

There are many wars going on in the world today, but the only crisis war has been the Darfur war in Sudan.

Now, a peace treaty signed last week appears to be holding, although some fighting and atrocities are continuing, according to some news stories.

Crisis wars are genocidal, meaning that the extermination becomes an objection, usually for the purpose of gaining access to land, wealth and even women. All of these elements were seen in this war, as pro-government Arab milities conducted ethnic cleansing against the regions black African population. Crisis wars cannot be stopped until they reach their explosive conclusion, which, in this case, resulting killing 70,000 people and forcing some two million people to flee their homes for camps. However, the fact that some fighting is continuing may mean that a resurgence is still possible.

Palestine

After winning last week's election for leader of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, is taking bold steps to advance the peace process. He's deployed PA forces throughout Gaza to stop further attacks on Israel, thus meeting a major demand of the Israelis.

Now the spotlight is on Israel. Israel has promised a cease-fire for at least a month, meaning that it will not attack Palestinian militias for that period. After that, pressure will be on Israel to commit to a date to tear down the security wall.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the peace will not hold, and that there will be a new genocidal crisis war between Jews and Palestinians within the next few years.

As I've described, Palestine/Israel is one of the six most dangerous regions of the world, in that a regional war is almost certain to explan quickly into a world war.

Ukraine

Viktor Yushchenko took the oath of office as President on Sunday. Russia sent only a low-level aide to represent Russian president Vladimir Putin at the inauguration. That's not too surprising, since Putin openly opposed Yushchenko during the campaign, and said many, many offensive things about him and his followers.

But not to worry -- on Monday, Yushchenko takes a trip to Moscow to meet with Putin personally. Yushchenko has already said that he plans to establish close relations with the EU, which Putin would hate, and now Yushchenko is going to Moscow to make friends with Russia again. The steely Putin will skillfully force himself to smile, all the while hoping for a legitimate opportunity to slip a shiv into his ribs.

Although everyone's playing nice right now, there's a lot of unfinished business to be played out as well. This is a huge humiliation for Putin, and he will get revenge.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the 1932 Russian genocide of Ukraine is a battle that will be re-fought. The entire Caucasus region is close to being aflame, thanks to the ten-year-old Chechen war, and the terrorist acts like the Beslan school massacre. It's very unlikely that things will settle down soon. (24-Jan-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-05 Some notes on current news in Darfur, Palestine and Ukraine

Palestine

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Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-05
Some notes on current news in Darfur, Palestine and Ukraine