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Unemployment fell to 5.2% from 5.4% in January, even though far fewer jobs were created last month than analysts had predicted. The reason is that the number of discouraged unemployed people no longer looking for work has been rising substantially. Such people are not counted by unemployment surveys, resulting in the fall in the unemployment rate.
Analysts' comments put the best possible face on it. The jobs report "is not a sign of weakness, the economy continues to create jobs," according to Richard Yamarone, chief economist for Argus Research Corp. in New York.
But those of us with memories will recall that this situation has recurred frequently for two years now. Analysts predict explosive job growth month after month, and they're disappointed almost every time. If the economy were really growing as vibrantly as analysts say, then job growth would be much greater.
We've made a similar point frequently about the rate of inflation. as we've pointed out, analysts talk about nothing else but the dangers of inflation, and they would be right if these were ordinary times. But we're in a generational crisis period, entering a 1930s style Great Depression, and so the consumer and producer prices have been extremely low when they should be skyrocketing.
A recent article entitled, "Alan Greenspan warns that global economic dangers are without historical precedent," describes how Alan Greenspan reversed
himself in a speech he made in London on Friday. A year ago,
Greenspan was congratulating himself for avoiding a stock market
crash after the 1990s bubble. But in the speech on Friday, he
essentially reversed himself and admitted that he's been mistaken for
the past ten years. He came very close to saying that a crash is
inevitable. Something could trigger it next month or next year, but
it's definitely coming.
(05-Feb-05)
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