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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Feb-05
Comments and questions from readers

Web Log - February, 2005

Comments and questions from readers

Palestinian peace, war in Iceland, are among the topics that readers have asked me about in the last few weeks.

Palestinean Peace?

Q:
Many people predicted that Yasser Arafat's death could lead to peace between Israel and Palestine, while you've consistently predicted a major Mideast war, Now that Abu Mazen Mahmoud Abbas is Palestinian President, the two sides are moving towards peace.

A:
I agree that Abbas is doing what he promised to do, and that things seem so hopeful in Palestine that it's hard to imagine trouble ahead. It almost looks like I'm mistaken, doesn't it? But it's like being in the middle of a heat wave in November, where you're tempted to believe that you'll be skipping winter this year. But winter comes anyway.
Let's watch what happens in the next few months. By the fall, we'll know if the "right of return" issue is being resolved, for example, and whether the Jewish settlers in Gaza are willing leave their homes. Militia groups Hamas and Hizbollah have not agreed to more than a temporary ceasefire. The prediction of a major Mideast war is near 100% certain, and the only reason it isn't 100% is because the sun might explode in the meantime.
While I'm answering this, let me give one dark scenario that some will consider the most cynical possible. One of the common characteristics of a crisis war is that it's frequently preceded by a secret mobilization (like Hitler's promise of "peace in our time" while he was secretly mobilizing for WW II). The dark scenario is that Hamas or Hizbollah are going along with the cease fire to gain time and to gain concessions from Israel, especially the release of former terrorists from prison, and that they're secretly mobilizing for future attacks on Israel.

War in Iceland and Canada?

Q:
I really enjoy your site and methodology. I have one question though, how do you account for countries that never seem to go to war. Like Iceland for example, or maybe even Canada. How does your theory apply to these types of countries?

A:
Both Iceland and Canada are on the World War II timeline, and both fought in WW II. Iceland was essentially part of Denmark in 1940, when German forces overran Denmark, meeting no more than token resistance. First British and then American forces occupied Iceland, to prevent German occupation. Thus, Iceland did participate in WW II.
Canada was certainly heavily involved in WW II, so they certainly have been to war. One thing to watch in Canada in the next few months and years is that if England and France become increasingly hostile to one another, then that should be reflected within Canada itself, in the relation between Quebec and the rest of Canada.

Social Security

Q:
What's your position on the current Social Security battle being fought in Congress?

A:
It's irrelevant. The upcoming "clash of civilizations" world war will cause enough deaths that the demographics of Social Security will be completely changed.

RSS News Feeds

Q:
Do you have any plans for an RSS feed of your articles/blogs? Yours is the one site that I still can't get with my aggregator.

A:
There's now an RSS/XML News Feed for the Web Log at:
www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.weblog.rss
A news feed for the articles will be coming soon.

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