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There are big differences in the reasons why Iran and North Korea want nuclear technology.
There's little doubt why North Korea is developing nuclear weapons. North Korea is mobilizing for war to force reunification of Korea under its control. Korea is in a generational crisis period, and is also likely to ally with China to attack Japan, as we wrote yesterday.
But even though Iran is in the same "Axis of Evil" as North Korea, Iran is actually like Iraq - in a generational awakening period, since only a single generation has passed since the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. Never in history has any country every initiated a new crisis war less than 40 years after the previous one ended.
Thus, Iran's goals are more political than belligerent, at least for the time being.
Iran knows that with American forces right next door in Iraq, American would not hesitate a second to use force to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
But Iran also knows that it can gain a great deal of political leverage if it can add nuclear weapons to its arsenal, even if, unlike in North Korea, there's no immediate plan to use them.
That's not to say that Iran never would use them. If, as expected,
the Palestine region erupts into a major regional war between Jews
and Arabs, then Iran will readily use any weapons it has on Israel.
But without that kind of provocation, Iran will use its weapons to
gain political hegemony only, and leave the preemptive nuclear wars
to North Korea.
(11-Feb-05)
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