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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-05
Ambassador to Japan calls North Korean threat "deadly"

Web Log - February, 2005

Ambassador to Japan calls North Korean threat "deadly"

While the Bush administration has been trying to give a muted, non-alarming response to the North Korean threat, James A. Baker Jr., the departing U.S. ambassador to Japan, says that North Korean's nuclear arsenal is a "deadly threat".

"The thing I worry most about with the North Koreans, to tell you the truth, is not that they're going to bomb Tokyo, but rather that they have a demonstrated record of selling any military device they own," Baker said. "A regime such as the North Koreans', with that record, selling nuclear material to all comers, is a very serious issue."

Baker may not be worried about a North Korean threat to bomb Tokyo, but other people are worried about Pyongyang's potential threats.

The South Koreans are pretty worried, for example. A South Korean newspaper reports that North Korea has developed an upgraded Scud missile that is capable of hitting any target in Japan or South Korea with greater accuracy than was previously possible.

South Korea has also been urging China to use economic sanctions to pressure North Korea to return to the nuclear non-proliferation talks. North Korea pulled out of those talks recently, blaming "hostile" U.S. policies, and revealed that it already had nuclear weapons. Last year in April, the North Korean government ordered its military to mobilize for war with the U.S.

In fact, there's been quite flurry of diplomatic activity, as alarmed U.S. and South Korean negotiators have been looking for any way possible to get North Korea to give up its nuclear program.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there will soon be a crisis war of Korean unification with near 100% certainty, and that Japan will be pulled into this war. My expectation is that China will be North Korea's ally in this war, especially because China is already expecting a war with America over Taiwan. The only difference between the two countries is timing. If China wants to hold back North Korea, it would not be a matter of principle, but only because China wants Korea to wait until China is ready.

As we've recently discussed, North Korea's behavior since 2002, when it first announced its intention to develop nuclear technology, follows a typical historical pattern of countries that are about launch a pre-emptive crisis war. The only thing we don't know is President Kim Jong-il's timing.

Meanwhile, if you're one of the people who love crazy dictators, consider applying for membership in the (North) Korean Friendship Association. You too can be recognized as an admirer of "The Dear Leader," Kim Jong-Il. (18-Feb-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-05 Ambassador to Japan calls North Korean threat "deadly"

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-05
Ambassador to Japan calls North Korean threat "deadly"