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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Feb-05
Increasingly militaristic China denounces US-Japan statement on Taiwan

Web Log - February, 2005

Increasingly militaristic China denounces US-Japan statement on Taiwan

China is militarily surpassing America in the Taiwan Straits, according to CIA Director Porter Goss in Senate testimony earlier this week.

This statement was just one of several by different countries that are raising tensions in the region.

On Thursday, Feb 17, Porter Goss made the following statement about China to the Senate:

In 2004, China increased its ballistic missile forces deployed across from Taiwan and rolled out several new submarines.

China continues to develop more robust, survivable nuclear-armed missiles as well as conventional capabilities for use in a regional conflict.

Taiwan continues to promote constitutional reform and other attempts to strengthen local identity. Beijing judges these moves to be a "timeline for independence". If Beijing decides that Taiwan is taking steps toward permanent separation that exceed Beijing's tolerance, we believe China is prepared to respond with various levels of force.

China is increasingly confident and active on the international stage, trying to ensure it has a voice on major international issues, secure access to natural resources, and counter what it sees as US efforts to contain or encircle China.

New leadership under President Hu Jintao is facing an array of domestic challenges in 2005, such as the potential for a resurgence in inflation, increased dependence on exports, growing economic inequalities, increased awareness of individual rights, and popular expectations for the new leadership.

Goss' statement matches the increasingly held view that China is growing militarily stronger, and its military is becoming increasingly modern. Many analysts believe that China will become the world's greatest economic and military power within one or two decades.

(This reminds me of a joke that we used to tell each other in college in the 1960s, when we were discussing what foreign languages to study: "The optimists learn Russian, and the pessimists learn Chinese.")

Goss's statement drew an immediate angry response from Beijing:

"The U.S. warning has severely violated the conventions of international relations. The United States has severely interfered with Chinese internal affairs and sent a false signal to the advocates of Taiwan independence."

This statement angered the Taiwanese. According to one editorial in the Taipai Times:

China's pressing for `legal warfare'

China's rapidly strengthening military power is a matter of concern for Asian nations such as Taiwan and Japan. China is now adding a new fuse to the powder keg -- an anti-secession law, thereby making conflict in the Asia-Pacific region more possible. ...

The purpose of enacting China's anti-secession law is to split Taiwan, dividing a main enemy from a secondary enemy on the island. The "main enemy" are those who espouse Taiwan's independence, while the "secondary enemy" are those who favor independence for the Republic of China (ROC). Beijing will first strike Taiwanese independence activists and then clamp down on ROC independence. This anti-secession law targets Taiwan, with the ultimate goal being to annex the island. People in Taiwan should be psychologically prepared and united in the face of this threat.

Although the anti-secession law is only a domestic law in China, when Beijing signs a joint communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations with other countries, they are expected to acknowledge, recognize and respect the idea that Taiwan is part of China.

Because of the escalating threat to Taiwan, Japan and America issued a joint statement saying that the two countries see security in the Taiwan Strait as a "common strategic objective." This statement, issued on Sunday morning, was a seeming minor change from previous military cooperation statements which called for Japan and America to work together in the "area surrounding Japan."

Although this was just a minor change in wording, Beijing strongly denounced the statement, saying that it interfered with China's sovereignty, territorial integrity and state security.

All of this is taking place just after North Korea has pulled out of the nuclear non-proliferation talks, declaring that it already had nuclear weapons.

South Korea, America and Japan have been meeting with Chinese diplomats, hoping to get China to pressure North Korea to rejoin the talks. China either can't or won't apply such pressure to North Korea,

On Saturday, China reported that North Korea will not return to the talks under any conditions.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these statements are all moving in the same direction -- toward a mobilization for war in the Pacific.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a war to reunite North and South Korea; it predicts that there will be a war to reunite Taiwan with China; and it predicts that China and Korea will engage in a war with Japan to obtain revenge for Japan's actions in World War II. However, Generational Dynamics does not tell us when these wars will occur, except that they'll occur in the next few years.

The statements we've seen in the last week have been getting increasingly ominous. China and North Korea are becoming increasingly militaristic, and are mobilizing for war. Positions in all countries involved, including America, are increasingly hardening. We can't predict when those wars will occur, but the kinds of statements we're hearing are typical of the things we would be hearing if these countries are planning a pre-emptive attack soon, with North Korea's statements considerably more ominous than China's.

The one thing that would defuse the situation right now is for North Korea to back down and agree to rejoin the nuclear non-proliferation talks. This would cost the country nothing, and would do a lot to calm many people's concerns about North Korea's intentions.

If North Korea continues to firmly refuse to even talk, then we have to assume that the Koreans hold America and Japan in such contempt that they don't even feel the need to appease them by talking to them. If North Korea's President Kim Jong-il can't make even that small compromise, then we can only assume that Kim has already firmly decided on a definite course, and may even have set a "date certain" for preemptive attack. (21-Feb-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Feb-05 Increasingly militaristic China denounces US-Japan statement on Taiwan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Feb-05
Increasingly militaristic China denounces US-Japan statement on Taiwan