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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Feb-05
WHO makes strongest bird flu alert so far, warning of "gravest possible danger"

Web Log - February, 2005

WHO makes strongest bird flu alert so far, warning of "gravest possible danger"

America and countries around the world are preparing for the worst-case scenario, which would be a virulent avian flu (bird flu) epidemic spreading around the world.

However, officials at the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control played down the immediate danger. "It [the virus] is still inefficient. It's not something we need to panic about. But it's giving us a big wake-up call,"

In the worst-case scenario, the virus would repeat the behavior of the 1918-19 Spanish Flu epidemic, which killed tens of millions of people.

Speaking an an Avian Flu conference in Vietnam yesterday, of the World Health Organization emphasized that the avian flu is becoming increasingly widespread throughout a dozen countries in Asia and is mutating to infect additional species of animals, though it hasn't yet mutated to a form which permits one infected human to easily infect another human. "Avian influenza in Asia poses a very significant public health threat. The disease is prevalent in several countries. It has never been so widespread at any time during the last century."

Other WHO officials urged preparation as quickly as possible. "The World is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic. We need to onsider urgent and decisive action in radical new ways."

Researchers are studying the role of ducks in the continuing spread of avian flu. Ducks are carriers of the virus, but do not exhibit any symptoms, yet spread the virus through feces. Millions of ducks in Thailand and Vietnam are being slaughtered in the hope of preventing the further spread of the virus, but everyone knows that it's a hopeless battle, since it's impossible to exterminate all ducks carrying the virus.

So far, 55 people, mostly in Vietnam, have become infected, and 42 of those have died, yielding a 76% death rate. A flu pandemic with that death rate would have a devastating effect on the world's population.

What would make the virus mutate so that it could spread from one human to another?

All that's required is for one human being to catch the avian flu from a duck or chicken, and then also get the ordinary human flu. The two strains of flu would exchange genes, making a mutation to a transmissible strain very likely.

However, there is some good news: If such a gene exchange occurs, the resulting mutation may (or may not) have a much lower death rate than 76%. However, even a 10% death rate would be devastating. The common flu virus has a death rate of only about 2%.

Of course, a flu epidemic has no relationship to Generational Dynamics, but it's relevant to this web site because it might trigger either a financial crisis or a civil war in China. (24-Feb-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Feb-05 WHO makes strongest bird flu alert so far, warning of "gravest possible danger"

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Feb-05
WHO makes strongest bird flu alert so far, warning of "gravest possible danger"