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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Feb-05
United Nations revises population growth projections upward

Web Log - February, 2005

United Nations revises population growth projections upward

The world population will be 9.1 billion in 2050, not 8.9 billion, which is what the U.N. predicted in 2002, according to a a press release from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

Almost all growth will take place in developing regions, where population is expected ro rise from today's 5.3 billion to 7.8 billion, according to the press release. By contrast, developed countries’ population will remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion.

Hmmmmmmm. That comes out to 0.76% per year increase in the world population for the next 45 years. That's 0.86% per year in the fastest growing regions, the developing regions. That's interesting. And that's 0.00% per year in the developed countries. Well, stop having sex folks -- the United Nations says that the population won't increase.

Let's look at the population for the past 55 years, according to the United Nations database of population information:

    Year  Population
    ----  ----------
    1950  2 518 629
    1955  2 755 823
    1960  3 021 475
    1965  3 334 874
    1970  3 692 492
    1975  4 068 109
    1980  4 434 682
    1985  4 830 979
    1990  5 263 593
    1995  5 674 380
    2000  6 070 581
    2005  6 453 628

For the past 55 years, population has been growing at the rate of 1.72% per year worldwide. In the Muslim countries, population has been growing at 2-4% per year.

And some United Nations committee says that all of a sudden, people are going to have a lot fewer kids.

Why?

The slower growth rate projections are “contingent on ensuring that couples have access to family planning and that efforts to arrest the current spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic are successful in reducing its growth momentum”.

So get this: If we go in and educate the Bangladeshi Muslims about birth control and family planning, then they'll all say, "Gosh, now we see what we're doing wrong, and we're gonna stop having so many kids," and their population growth rate will reduce from 2.07% a year to only 0.76% per year.

And we'll send a few lecturers into the West Bank, and explain to the Palestinians how the birds and bees works, and they'll reduce their population growth from 3.3% per year to just 0.76% per year.

And all these Muslim groups will just be thrilled at having someone come in and explain all this stuff about sex and family planning to them. Who knows? Maybe even I'll get a job going over there and explaining family planning to Palestinians, because otherwise how would they ever understand what's causing all those kids?

Sorry for the sarcasm, but you really have to laugh at all this. What are these people at the United Nations thinking? Where do they get this stuff?

I'm told that some people don't believe the solid analysis on this web site, but they do believe the stuff that the United Nations tells them. Well, whatever floats your boat.

The United Nations projections are just plain silly.

Maybe the world would be a better place if people who should know better, like the dum-dum politicians at the United Nations, would actually talk about the future more realistically. Maybe the way to reduce the number of wars is to stop making so many stupid airhead projections with no basis in reality.

From the point of view of Generational Analysis, here's what's more likely to happen: We're headed for a major new "clash of civilizations" world war that will reduce the world population to around 3 billion. By 2030, the population will grow back to around 4 billion. That's around the time when the Singularity takes place, and super-intelligent computers will be running things. Nobody has any idea what's going to happen after that. In particular, no United Nations committee has the vaguest clue what the population of the world will be in 2050. (25-Feb-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Feb-05 United Nations revises population growth projections upward

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Feb-05
United Nations revises population growth projections upward