	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Feb-05
Tel Aviv nightclub shows where the Mideast peace plan is going

Web Log - February, 2005

Tel Aviv nightclub shows where the Mideast peace plan is going

Islamic Jihad never agreed to the Palestinian/Israeli ceasefire in the first place, and yesterday they took credit for a suicide bombing at a popular Tel Aviv karaoke nightclub, killing four people and wounding dozens. One of Islamic Jihad's leaders denied involvement with the attack, and another group took credit. The second group, al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, has also refused to participate in the ceasefire.

This was the first terrorist suicide bombing in Israel in several months, and it caught the country by surprise.

The Mideast peace plan is now at a critical turning point. Israel and most Palestinian terrorist groups have been honoring the ceasefire. In particular, Israel has refrained from attacking militia leaders recently.

Many Israelis are now openly saying the following: There haven't been any suicide bombings for several months because the Israeli army was going after the militia groups in their camps. As soon as the the army stopped attacking the militia, there's a new suicide attack.

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is under enormous pressure today to bring the perpetrators to justice, and find a way to guarantee that there will be no more suicide bombings. Abbas has vowed to track down and punish the perpetrators, but let's face it: If they're not afraid to die, then they won't be afraid of Abbas' punishment.

When Yasser Arafat was in charge, Israel would already have retaliated by now. Israeli is undoubtedly delaying a response to see what Abbas does.

Militant groups like Islamic Jihad and al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades and Hizbollah have not agreed to the ceasefire or peace process, and are trying to trigger a war. They believe that a major war would result in Israel's extermination.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the genocidal Jewish-Arab war of the 1940s will be re-fought in the next few years, as the people in the generation that grew up during the 1940s war all disappear (retired or died), all at the same time. As usual, Generational Dynamics tells us what the final destination is, but doesn't tell us how we'll get there, or how long it will take.

Based on this trend information from Generational Dynamics, I predicted that the Mideast Peace Roadmap would fail, and that the most likely time frame for a Mideast war would be within two years after the disappearance of Yasser Arafat. As of today, I have absolutely no reason to modify either of these predictions. (26-Feb-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Feb-05 Tel Aviv nightclub shows where the Mideast peace plan is going

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Feb-05
Tel Aviv nightclub shows where the Mideast peace plan is going