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Following the shock of Friday's unexpected suicide bombing at a Tel Aviv nightclub, Israel's defense minister blamed Syria for the bombings.
On Sunday, Israeli police went on maximum terror alert, and is roadblocking town entries and patrolling crowded centers.
There is a great deal of confusion over which of the Palestinian militia groups is responsible for the bombing. The Palestinian Authority has blamed the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah, which has repeatedly denied involvement.
Israel is accusing Syria and Islamic Jihad, but Islamic Jihad itself is putting out mixed messages, with some leaders claiming credit and others denying involvement.
This could indicate a split within Islamic Jihad itself, between those supporting Mahmoud Abbas and the peace plan versus those urging continued violence against Israel.
Israel is suspending further handover of West Bank towns to the Palestinian Authority, until Abbas's response becomes clearer. Israel is demanding that Abbas dismantle the militia groups and confiscate their weapons.
Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new regional war between Israelis and Palestinians. The exact path that this conflict will take is not known, but it's quite possible that it could begin with a violent conflict within the Palestinian community itself, and that the current split within Islamic Jihad is the first sign.
Here's something else to watch for:
There's going to be a big international conference in London this
week, starting on Tuesday, with the purpose of advancing the Mideast
peace process. Watch to see if there's any talk about forming an
international force to help peacekeeping in Palestine. Any such
peacekeeping force would even further inflame the region, and lead
directly to the involvement of participating countries in the new
Mideast war.
(27-Feb-05)
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