Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
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This book resolves the question of identifying patterns in history and extrapolating them forward. For the time being, a draft of the book can be read online at the following location:
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.book2
The following text is from the preface:
I believe that it's especially important for young people to understand this conclusion and the reasoning behind it. After all, they're the ones who will be most affected.
There are many books that attempt to predict the future based on historical cycles in finance, war or politics. Every book we've seen, including the most modern and scholarly, makes substantial methodological errors that we've identified. The two biggest and most common mistakes are (1) failure to distinguish between chaotic (in the sense of Chaos Theory) events and ordered (cyclic or growth) trends; and (2) failure to distinguish between generational and non-generational trends.
For example, many cyclic trends were identified in the 1920s, in the aftermath of the Great War (World War I). The best known of these are the 40-50 year cycles identified by Russian researcher Nikolai Kondratiev. It was a great theory until its predictions were contradicted by World War II. The theory of Kondratiev Cycles (K-cycles) is actually valid, but only if you understand that WW I was a generational war in Eastern Europe, and WW II was a generational war in Western Europe.
Probably the most useful accomplishment of Generational Dynamics is to identify and sort out the different components and data series that go into establishing historical cycles and trends and technology growth cycles and trends, and then applying them to the current times. We believe that this work, which unifies numerous analytical and forecasting methodologies, almost completely solves the heretofore unresolved questions about finding patterns in history.
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