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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Feb-05
Army's "Future Combat System" calls for autonomous robot soldiers by 2014

Web Log - February, 2005

Army's "Future Combat System" calls for autonomous robot soldiers by 2014

What surprises me is that the technology is proceeding faster than I expected.

On Friday, the Army cut the ribbon on the huge "System of Systems integration laboratory" in Huntingdon Beach, Calif.

This will be the simulation, testing and integration lab for the Future Combat Systems project, which will deploy, by 2014, a network of intelligent battlefield robots which will replace the duties of ordinary soldiers, and will have the ability to kill.

The robots will be in a variety of forms, including aircraft, ground vehicles, and special-purpose units that look like toy trucks.

When I heard the BBC interview Pentagon spokesman Gordon Johnson about the project, I was struck by how careful Johnson was to be reassuring. These robots will NOT be making autonomous decisions to kill, he assured us. Human soldiers will be monitoring everything they do, and human soldiers will have to approve any killing.

I was also struck by the fact that Johnson was talking about the initial deployment in 2014, and the interviewer failed to ask the obvious question: "What about 2020 or 2025?" By that time, these autonomous robots will be much more numerous and much more advanced, and it will not be desirable or even possible for a human being to approve each action. By that time, intelligent computer robots will be making decisions on their own.

So what does this mean for the timeframe for the Singularity?

Just as intelligent robots will be used as soldiers, they'll also have a wide variety of commercial uses, everything from robot plumbers to robot nursemaids, all making autonomous decisions. And those robots will soon be making all their decisions on their own as well.

The Singularity

The Singularity

Intelligent robots will also be doing scientific research to develop improved versions of themselves, so that intelligent robots will eventually be far more intelligent than human beings. The point in time where intelligent robots are essentially in control of their own destiny is called "The Singularity," because there will be a bend in the exponential growth technology curve, as shown in the adjoining graphic. There is no way to have any idea what's going to happen to the world after that point.

Various analysts have estimated the date of the Singularity as occurring anywhere between 2015 and 2045. Early in 2004, I estimated that the Singularity would occur in 2030.

However, the aggressive schedule for the deployment of Future Combat Systems leads me to believe that technology is farther ahead than I had estimated. Furthermore, it now appears that a supercomputer will have the power of the human brain in the 2008 time frame, where I had estimated 2010-2012.

These schedules lead me to wonder whether the Singularity will come a little earlier, perhaps around 2025. On the other hand, some of these schedules may turn out to be too optimistic, so I'm going to stick with the 2030 estimate for the time being. (28-Feb-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Feb-05 Army's "Future Combat System" calls for autonomous robot soldiers by 2014

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Feb-05
Army's "Future Combat System" calls for autonomous robot soldiers by 2014