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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 03-Mar-05
Syria is suddenly the least popular country in the world

Web Log - March, 2005

Syria is suddenly the least popular country in the world

Even France and America are united in demanding Syria's pullout from Lebanon.

As tens of thousands of Lebanese demonstrate for free elections and force the collapse of the Syrian-puppet government, people around the world are asking themsleves, "Gee. What if George Bush was right, and invading Iraq does bring democracy to all the countries in the Mideast?" This speculation only increased when Egypt also moved in the direction of free elections.

I wish it were so, but as readers of this web site know, Generational Dynamics predicts a major regional war between Arabs and Jews within the next few years, so the hoped-for string of Mideast democracies is not in the cards.

Still, the rapidly swelling worldwide political pressure on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon is remarkable to behold, and it's useful to speculate on what will happen next.

There are many things that Generational Dynamics can predict with a great deal of certainty, but whether or not Syria will withdraw from Lebanon is not one of them. This is a purely political and chaotic (in the sense of Chaos Theory) event, and day-to-day events could move the withdrawal decision in either direction.

If you want to try to "read" Syria by comparing their situation to something in America, you might compare it to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when President Kennedy used political pressure to force Russia to remove missles from Cuba.

The two events are comparable not because their details are the same, but because the two events occur at similar times in the generational cycle. They're both big international political crises occurring about one generation after the end of the previous crisis war: World War II for America, and the Syria-Lebanon war for Syria.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be like President Kennedy in the following sense: He will have vivid memories of the horrors of the crisis war, and will be seeking a political solution which will guarantee that no such war will ever happen again. Assad will be firm and resolute in his political decisions. He will avoid a war if possible, and if a war becomes necessary then the people will generally not support it -- at least not for long.

Syria's increasing political isolation comes from a perfect storm of events. America has been accusing Syria of funding suicide bomber insurgents in Iraq, and funding anti-Israeli terrorism by the Hizbollah militia in Lebanon. But then beloved former prime minister Rafiq Hariri was killed by a suicide bomber in Beirut two weeks ago, and the Lebanese people en masse blamed the bombing on Syria. Then there was the massive Tel Aviv nightclub bombing last week, and Israel and a lot of other people are blaming Syria for that too.

Assad undoubtedly blames the presence of Israel for the Lebanon/Syria crisis war. Syria's occupation of Lebanon thus fulfills several strategic goals: It keeps the conflict level between the two countries under control, and also puts pressure on Israel. Assad will thus go to the brink to avoid having to withdraw from Lebanon.

This is going to infuriate the Lebanese people, and bring hostile international criticism on Syria.

The real danger is that all this political turmoil will ignite violence in neighboring Palestine. The situation in Lebanon is very, very far from resolution. (03-Mar-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 03-Mar-05 Syria is suddenly the least popular country in the world

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 03-Mar-05
Syria is suddenly the least popular country in the world