	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 08-Mar-05
China's new "anti-secession" law infuriates Taiwan

Web Log - March, 2005

China's new "anti-secession" law infuriates Taiwan

15,000 protest new law which provides legal justification for Chinese invasion of Taiwan

in case of any Taiwanese moves towards independence from China.

The exact text of the new proposed law won't be revealed for a few days, but it "reflects the strong determination of the Chinese people to never allow secessionist forces working for Taiwan to separate Taiwan from China", according to a Saturday speech by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.

At the same conference, Beijing denounced a Japan-US security agreement, say, "Any part of putting Taiwan directly or indirectly into the scope of Japan-US security co-operation constitutes an encroachment on China's sovereignty and an interference in China's internal affairs." This repeated a denunciation that we discussed several weeks ago, of a joint statement by Japan and America that security in the Taiwan Strait is a "common strategic objective."

And, as if that weren't enough, on Monday China warned Australia not to honor its 50-year old security agreement with America.

These new warnings came just after China announced a 12.6% military budget increase. China already has the world's largest standing army, the People's Liberation Army, with 2.3 million people.

American intelligence agencies have revealed that China has been rapidly building up its military assault forces, including amphibious ships capable of ferrying troops and tanks from mainland China to Taiwan.

Ironically, China's series of combative steps comes just after Taiwan President President Chen Shui-bian has been increasingly conciliatory. Just last week he reaffirmed the "five noes":

no declaration of independence,

no change of the nation's official name,

no inclusion of the "state-to-state" theory on cross-strait relations in the nation's Constitution,

no national referendum on changing the status of the island regarding unification or independence, and

no abolition of the National Unification Guidelines or National Unification Council.

However, many Taiwanese feel that Chen, who has long favored Taiwan independence, is exhibiting weakness in making such remarks.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China's moves constitute a continuing mobilization for war. Generational Dynamics predicts that the genocidal civil war that began in 1934 with Mao Zedong's "Long March," and ended when Mao's enemy, Chiang Kai-shek, fled with his troops to Taiwan, will be refought in the next few years, with a full-scale regional war that will involve America.

Like North Korea, China has been making a series of provocative moves that are historically typical of countries that are planning preemptive wars. China's rapid military buildup is clearly in preparation for a war to reunite Taiwan with the mainland, and the anti-secession law is China's method for justifiying a preemptive attack legally.

As in the case of North Korea, we know with near 100% certainty that a war is coming, but we don't know whether Beijing has a "date certain" for a preemptive attack, or is waiting for some other event to trigger an attack. (08-Mar-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 08-Mar-05 China's new "anti-secession" law infuriates Taiwan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 08-Mar-05
China's new "anti-secession" law infuriates Taiwan