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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Mar-05
US urges China to rethink passage of "anti-secession" law

Web Log - March, 2005

US urges China to rethink passage of "anti-secession" law

Taiwan threatens mass counter-demonstrations as China reveals more of the anti-secession law, scheduled for passage next week, targeted at preventing Taiwan from moving to independence.

"If possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," said one Beijing official.

China's proposed anti-secession law authorizes China to attack if Taiwan moves toward formal independence, though the law doesn't specify what actions might invite an attack.

The White House condemned the law and said it "[opposes] any attempts to determine the future of Taiwan by anything other than peaceful means."

Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council issued a written statement: "This law exposes China's plot to impose armed force to swallow up Taiwan. In essence, it has handed its military a blank check to unleash force against Taiwan."

China has still not revealed all the details of the law, and the leaders of Taiwan's ruling party have vowed to stage a mass demonstration in any of three cases: if the anti-secession law imposes penalties on Taiwan people, or leads to changes to the status quo across the strait, or damages Taiwan's basic national interests.

What strikes me about the situation is that there's something new every day that raises the level of confrontation in the region, because of something said or done by Taiwan, China, North Korea, South Korea or Japan.

The phrase that I'm using more and more in these situations is that all of these countries are "looking for reasons to confront," while even a year or two ago, they were "looking for reasons to compromise."

The reason that the anti-secession law is so significant is that it provides a legal framework for a Chinese attack on Taiwan. It's rare for a country, even with the most venal intentions, to go to war without providing a legal justification. Even Hitler did so. It's very unlikely that Beijing would consider such a law without planning to use it.

Taiwan's separation from mainland China in the civil war that ended in 1949 has always been a major thorn in China's side, but the country has always been too weak to do anything about it, since Taiwan and American have a mutual security agreement. Now, China and Taiwan are entering a "generational crisis" period, thanks to the fact that the kids who grew up during the genocidal civil war of the 1940s are all disappearing (retiring or dying), all at once. With younger generations now in charge, there is little desire on either side (or on America's side, for that matter) to compromise. That's why these countries are "looking for reasons to confront," rather than compromise, and why the level of conflict is increasing.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both China and North Korea are mobilizing for war. Taiwan is not yet doing so, but the anti-secession law may provoke Taiwan into mobilizing for war as well.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be major regional wars to reunite North and South Korea, to reunite Taiwan with China, and to give China and Korea revenge for Japan's actions in World War II. The statements we've seen recently have been getting increasingly ominous. China and North Korea are becoming increasingly militaristic, and are mobilizing for war. We can't predict when those wars will occur, but the kinds of statements we're hearing are typical of the things we would be hearing if these countries are planning a pre-emptive attack soon. (09-Mar-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Mar-05 US urges China to rethink passage of "anti-secession" law

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Mar-05
US urges China to rethink passage of "anti-secession" law