	Generational Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Mar-05
Chechnya: Russian killing of rebel leader returns world's focus back to Caucasus

Web Log - March, 2005

Chechnya: Russian killing of rebel leader returns world's focus back to Caucasus

Terrorist Shamil Basayev may gain, as rebels select an obscure Islamic cleric to be their new leader, after their former leader, Aslan Maskhadov, was killed on Tuesday.

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia and Chechnya

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia and Chechnya

For several months, the world's attention has been elsewhere -- Lebanon, Korea, the tsunami, Darfur, and Michael Jackson. This killing has refocused the world's attention on the Caucasus region, with several troubled areas.

Maskhadov was considered by many to be a moderate rebel leader in the ten-year-old Chechen war with Russia. Whenever American or European governments criticized Russian president Vladimir Putin for not negotiating with the Chechens, they meant negotiating with Maskhadov.

Now, with Maskhadov gone, many commentators are saying that any hopes for peace in Chechnya are gone with him. The Russians themselves are calling the killing a victory that will demoralize the terrorists.

Very little is known about Islamic cleric Abdul-Khalim Saidullayev, who was selected as the new rebel leader. It's not even certain that he's a native Chechen, as some have claimed that he's from Saudi Arabia and a proponent of the radical Islamist Wahabbi sect.

The main concern is that the change in leadership will give new power to terrorist Shamil Basayev, the Chechen terrorist who masterminded the September, 2004, massacre of 300 people, including 156 children, in the Beslan, North Ossetia, school massacre. The latter was only of three major terrorist acts in ten days, including the bombing of two airplanes in flight and a subway bombing in Moscow, all masterminded by Basayev.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the analysis of this situation is as follows:

Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a new major regional war in the Caucasus region, replaying the genocidal wars that occurred in the 1920s-40s in that region.

The killing of Maskhadov and the selection of Saidullayev are chaotic (in the sense of Chaos Theory) political events, two of millions that occur every day. Although the these millions of events have seeming random effects, there is a "attractor trend" that "attracts" random chaotic events to be more likely to follow the trend. The attractor trend, in this case, is the major war that we described in the last paragraph.

Thus Generational Dynamics tells us that these events are move likely to move the region toward war rather than away from war. That result isn't a certainty, just as you might have a heat wave in November in New York City, where the "attractor trend" in that case is the cold temperaturs of winter. But the chances are that these events will be one new step toward the war.

For people who are interested in more information about how this kind of forecasting works, read Chapter 4, "Chaos Theory and Generational Forecasting" in the online text of my new book, Generational Dynamics for Historians. (11-Mar-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Mar-05 Chechnya: Russian killing of rebel leader returns world's focus back to Caucasus

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Mar-05
Chechnya: Russian killing of rebel leader returns world's focus back to Caucasus