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Think back six weeks to the euphoria following the Palestinian elections
that selected Abu Mazen Mahmoud Abbas as the new president of the Palestinian Organization formerly headed by the late Yasser Arafat.
At that time, the path to peace seemed clear: Abbas would negotiate with Israel's Ariel Sharon on terms for peace, and for a Palestinian nation living side by side with Israel.
In some ways, things are going well. The "temporary ceasefire" between Israelis and Palestinians has been holding reasonably well, if you don't count last month's suicide bombing at a popular Tel Aviv karaoke nightclub.
And the negotiations have been going pretty well, if you don't count the Sharon government's decision to extend the barrier around Jerusalem to include a large West Bank settlement.
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And a new poll by the respected Khalil Shikaki says that something has changed: The Palestinian people are overwhelmingly rejecting suicide bombing as a strategy against Israel.
And yet, the chaos in Mideast politics is growing, pushing the region in unpredictable directions.
In Lebanon, hundreds of thousands of anti-government protestors in one day insist that Syria must leave; on another day, the Hezbollah militia sponsors a huge pro-Syrian rally fueled by more by anti-Israeli sentiment than anything else.
And what about Abbas and the Palestinian Authority? The future of both is coming increasingly into question as the increasingly popular Palestinian militia group Hamas militia group will run in the upcoming Palestinian legislative elections.
So the Lebanese anti-Israeli militia group Hezbollah and the Palestinian anti-Israeli militia group Hamas are both poised to gain a great deal more political power than they had before. And when I say, "anti-Israeli," I mean that both groups have announced that they have no intention to honor the ceasefire any more than temporarily.
So, we see a rising maelstrom of chaotic political events being drawn
to a long-range trend, and Generational Dynamics predicts that the
long-range trend is a major new Mideast war, replaying the genocidal
war between Jews and Arabs in the 1940s.
(16-Mar-05)
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