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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 05-Apr-05
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair schedules a new election for May 5

Web Log - April, 2005

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair schedules a new election for May 5

But pundits are saying that Iraq is not an issue. Could that be true?

Tony Blair could have selected any date before June 12, 2006 - five years after the last election, but he selected May 5. On Tuesday, he made a visit on Tuesday to Westminister Palace, to ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament, and the Queen graciously agreed. Next month's election will select all 646 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the House of Commons. The majority party (or coalition) will form a new government and select the Prime Minister, either Tony Blair or his replacement.

What's interesting is that the pundits do not expect the Iraq war to be the major issue. The major issues are expected to be related to the National Health Service, immigration, crime, taxes, and whether to adopt the proposed European Union constitution and the euro currency.

According to the BBC's election issues guide, here are the top priorities of each of the three major parties:

Tony Blair's Labor Party: Strong economy, higher living standards; faster NHS treatment; better results at schools; tougher border protection; safer communities; more family leave, childcare.

Michael Howard's Conservative Party: Lower taxes through savings on bureaucracy; tougher school discipline and more school choice; cleaner hospitals and shorter waiting lists; immigration controls; more police.
Charles Kennedy's Liberal Democratic Party: Put patients not targets first; free personal care for elderly; scrap student tuition fees; smaller class sizes; 10,000 more police; higher pensions for over 75s; local income tax; 50% top tax rate.

Here are the three parties' positions on the Iraq war:

Labor: Stand by Iraq war - even if weapons intelligence was wrong, Saddam flouted UN resolutions; new powers for government to detain terror suspects at home; £3.7bn more on defence.
Conservative: Still back Iraq war but say Tony Blair lied over the intelligence; oppose house arrest and want wiretap evidence admitted; spend £2.7bn more on defence than Labour.

Liberal Democrats: Opposed Iraq war and demand Blair reveal when he promised to commit UK forces; would start phased withdrawal of troops with year-end deadline; want only judges to detain terror suspects.

According to early polls, Labor and the Conservatives are tied at about 35%, and the Liberal Democrats are a distant third at 21%.

Thus, if Labor or Conservatives win, as is overwhelmingly expected, the UK will continue to support the war in Iraq.

In this sense, the UK election parallels our own November Presidential election. The John Kerry and George Bush had almost completely identical platform positions on Iraq, but Iraq was a major election issue nonetheless.

Australia, America, UK

President George Bush, Prime Minister Tony Blair and Australian Prime Minister John Howard were the three major leaders in launching the Iraq war in 2003. John Howard was decisively reelected last year, This victory was a surprise because opposition leader Mark Latham has been highly critical of Australia's participation in the Iraq war, and indicated that if he won he would pull Australian troops out of Iraq.

Thus, Blair's is the third reelection bid of the three leaders. If we can predict anything based on these last elections, it's probably this: That Iraq is going to be in important issue, and will have an important effect on the election, though we don't yet know what it will be. (05-Apr-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 05-Apr-05 UK Prime Minister Tony Blair schedules a new election for May 5

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 05-Apr-05
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair schedules a new election for May 5