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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Apr-05
Jewish extremists attempt to provoke Palestinian extremists to violence

Web Log - April, 2005

Jewish extremists attempt to provoke Palestinian extremists to violence

Israeli and Palestinian security forces are out in force this weekend protecting the Al Aqsa Mosque, Islam's third-holiest site, on a hilltop in Jerusalem's Old City.

The same hilltop is also sacred to the Jews, and is known as Temple Mount. However, to reduce tensions, Jewish access has been strictly limited since Israel captured east Jerusalem in the 1967 Mideast war. Indeed, when opposition leader Ariel Sharon, now Prime Minister, visited Temple Mount in September 2000, the visit touched off Palestinian riots that triggered the 4 1/2 year Intifida.

Sooooooooo, Jewish extremists, who are opposing Israel's pullout from the Gaza strip, and the abandonment of the Jewish settlements there, have announced a huge rally at Temple Mount on Sunday.

The purpose of such a rally would be to provoke the Palestinians to violence, which would, presumably, cause Sharon to reverse the Gaza pullout plan. Devious, huh?

Well, it's working so far. Palestinian extremist militia group Hamas has promised a massive counter-rally if the Jewish extremist rally takes place.

"They will not be able to storm Al Aqsa Mosque, God willing, but if they do, all that has happened during the so-called quietness will disappear in the wind," said Nizar Rayan, a Hamas official. "We will move with our rockets and our mujahadeen in order to defend Al Aqsa and to protect it. Not only Hamas but all the Palestinians and Muslims."

The "quietness" that Rayan is referring to is the honeymoon period following the election in January of Abu Mazen Mahmoud Abbas as the new president of the Palestinian Organization formerly headed by the late Yasser Arafat. Hamas and other militia groups have refused to sign on to any peace agreement between Abbas and Sharon, but they have agreed to honor a temporary ceasefire. The Sunday rallies would end the ceasefire.

The Israeli security forces are planning a major show of force to prevent the Jewish extremists from reaching their goal. But keep in mind that the Gaza pullout isn't scheduled until July, so there is still plenty of time for Jewish extremists to provoke violence, even if violence is avoided this weekend.

These aren't the only signs that Abbas' honeymoon is over. Last week, Abbas was forced to dismiss two senior security men and to announce plans to retire hundreds more, in response to a shooting rampage by a group of Palestinian militants in Abbas' West Bank compound last week.

On the Israeli side, Sharon has announced plans to plans to build more settlements in a portion of the West Bank with the "Mideast Roadmap" peace plan designates as Palestinian land. The European Union is expressing "deep concern" over the plan, saying that it violates international humanitarian laws, as well as UN revolutions.

President Bush will be meeting with Ariel Sharon in Texas on Monday, and he's indicated that he will also chastise Sharon for the settlment expansion plans.

For the Palestinians themselves, the high expectations of change and permanent peace with Israel are not being met. There has been little relief from the regime of Israeli checkpoints that give Israel a veto over ordinary Palestinians' ability to work, study, and visit relatives, and there is little or no chance that Israel will remove the checkpoints any time soon.

This concept of unrealistic expectations not being met is a theme that I've discussed frequently on this web site, in various contexts. The concept is that terrorist groups and warmaking groups put plans on hold pending an election, thanks to unrealistic expectations that the election will change things. When the unrealistic expectations are not met, then the terrorist groups vigorously resume their previous plans. This appears to be what's happening with Hamas today.

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're heading for a major new Mideast war, replaying the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs in the 1940s. (09-Apr-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Apr-05 Jewish extremists attempt to provoke Palestinian extremists to violence

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Apr-05
Jewish extremists attempt to provoke Palestinian extremists to violence