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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Apr-05
China makes five demands of Japan

Web Log - April, 2005

China makes five demands of Japan

After Japanese leader apologized at length for Japan's history, a private Saturday meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at the Asian-African summit in Jakarta failed to resolve differences between the two countries.

The day before the meeting Mr. Koizumi said that Japan humbly accepted the facts of history that "through its colonial rule and aggression, [it had] caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of many countries, particularly to those of Asian nations."

He added, "With feelings of deep remorse and heartfelt apology always engraved in mind. Japan has resolutely maintained, consistently since the end of World War II, never turning into a military power but an economic power, its principle of resolving all matters by peaceful means, without recourse through the use of force."

However, in an accident of bad timing, just hours before Koizumi's speech, Japanese lawmakers paid a long-scheduled visit to Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan's 2.5 million war dead from World War II, including a number of war criminals.

This led a frosty Hu to snap, "Remorse expressed for (Japan's invasion of China and World War II) should be translated into action and no move should be made to offend the people of China and the people from other Asian countries."

The Saturday meeting between Hu and Koizumi was cordial, but Hu used the meeting to make five "proposals" to Japan to improve relations between the two countries:

The Japanese government should strictly abide the existing "Peace and Friendship Treaty" between the two countries, and take specific actions to forge a friendly and cooperative relationship.

The Japanese government should reflect on the aggression by the Japanese militarists against China in the 1930s and 40s, and deal with historic problems in a serious and sincere manner. (This refers to the Chinese complaints that Japanese textbooks don't deal with Japan's history sincerely.)

Japan should support the "one China" policy, and oppose Taiwan independence. (In recent months, Japan and Taiwan have been supporting each other's positions against the Chinese.)

Differences between the two nations need to be resolved through dialogues and peaceful negotiations.

The two countries should further strengthen communication and cooperation.

Needless to say, not all Japanese are willing to simply accept these Chinese "proposals." Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura is playing "bad cop" to Prime Minister Koizumi's "good cop." He warned Beijing against more anti-Japan demonstrations, and then he criticized China's textbooks, saying that, "There is a tendency toward this in any country, but the Chinese textbooks are extreme in the way they uniformly convey the 'our country is correct' perspective."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Japan and China are heading for war with 100% certainty. As the generation of people who grew up during and have personal memory of the horrors of World War II all retire, the younger generations will increasingly reject compromise and containment of problems, and adopt solutions involving confrontation.

It's important to remember that all of this is really irrespective of what the politicians do. If it were up to Koizumu and Hu, the two countries would probably work out some sort of compromise. But both countries are entering a "generational crisis" period, and during these periods it's the masses of people that lead the country into war, not the politicians. If the politicians tried to compromise, the people would throw them out of office.

As Leo Tolstoy wrote about Napoleon's invasion of Russia in War and Peace, "Had Napoleon then forbidden [his army] to fight the Russians, they would have killed him and have proceeded to fight the Russians anyway, because it was inevitable." We're seeing the same sort of thing today between China and Japan, as well as in other regions of the world, at this unique time in history, 60 years after the end of World War II. (25-Apr-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Apr-05 China makes five demands of Japan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Apr-05
China makes five demands of Japan