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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Apr-05
Taiwan opposition leader's trip to Beijing is high theatre

Web Log - April, 2005

Taiwan opposition leader's trip to Beijing is high theatre

Taiwan's generational split is on display today, amid cheers and cries of "traitor."

Lien Chan, leader of KMT, Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Lien Chan, leader of KMT, Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party (Source: BBC)

Lien Chan was just a youth when he and his family fled mainland China for Taiwan to escape execution by Mao Zedong's army, after the Communist Party defeated the Nationalist Party in a 15-year civil war that ended in 1949.

Lien is returning to the mainland today for the first time in 56 years. He'll be leading a delegation of senior officials of the same Nationalist Party that fled from the Communists in 1949. It'll be the first meeting of Communist and Nationalist Party officials since then.

Mr Lien, who was born in China, has called his trip to the mainland a journey of peace - saying he hopes it will help the two sides work towards reconciliation after more than half a century of conflict.

Lien says his trip is a journey of peace. "I hope the journey will contribute in whatever small way towards mutual assistance, mutual concern, and the creation of a win-win situation," he said.

This is rich in irony of course, as any good political ploy is. The trip has infuriated supporters of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, although President Chen Shui-bian has given the trip cautious approval.

The trip dramatizes the sharp differences in views between people of different generations.

Lien was born in 1936. He grew up during the genocidal civil war, and saw dozens or hundreds of his friends and family slaughtered during the war. Like most people in the generation that grows up during a crisis war, he suffered a kind of "generational child abuse," and grew up to be an indecisive adult who seeks compromise and containment of problems rather than confrontation.

President Chen was born in 1950, part of the risk-seeking generation that grows up after a crisis war (like America's Baby Boomer generation). He has no personal memory of the civil war, and has no fear of confrontation.

The younger generations were greatly influenced by China's bloody 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which convinced them that they didn't want to be part of China. Taiwan's college students began the "Wild Lily Rebellion" several months later, and in 2000, one of their leaders became President of Taiwan: Chen Shui-Bian.

Taiwan poll results to question: "Do you feel Taiwanese, Chinese or both?" <font size=-2>(Source: WSJ)</font>

Taiwan poll results to question: "Do you feel Taiwanese, Chinese or both?" (Source: WSJ)

The adjoining graph, which shows the number of Taiwanese who call themselves "Chinese" versus "Taiwanese" shows how the generational change is playing out. As the older generation dies out, the number of people calling them "Chinese" has been decreasing; as younger generations grow older, the number of people calling themselves "Taiwanese" is increasing.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a reunification war between China and Taiwan is inevitable, and will occur with 100% certainty. As we've previously described, China has announced double-digit war budgets for each the past several years, and appears to be preparing for a preemptive strike. China is believed to be building a navy of amphibious vehicles capable of transporting an invading army to Taiwan. Such a war would bring military retaliation from America. (27-Apr-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Apr-05 Taiwan opposition leader's trip to Beijing is high theatre

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Apr-05
Taiwan opposition leader's trip to Beijing is high theatre