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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-May-05
World becoming panicky over North Korean nuclear test threat

Web Log - May, 2005

World becoming panicky over North Korean nuclear test threat

UN nuclear chief calls it "disastrous"; US lawmaker calls it a "cataclysmic" event.

North Korea's threat to test a nuclear weapon next month seems to be causing a level of panic and nervousness around the world.

Arthur Brown, who retired in December as chief of the East Asia division of the CIA's clandestine service, has painted the following scenario:

A small amount of radioactive fallout will leak from the test site and drift toward Japan. Financial markets in Tokyo and Seoul will be rocked by the news. Foreign companies in South Korea will weigh whether to pull out dependents or reduce their operations. And Washington will debate whether to impose a blockade or other tough measures to contain the North Korean nuclear breakout.

According to the Washington Post article by David Ignatius, Brown believes that North Korean President Kim Jong-il is being completely rational, and is not the "reckless madman" and some analysts and pundits claim. He's playing the "nuclear card" in order to guarantee his regime's survival and, in Brown's view, "the chance that Kim Jong Il will negotiate away his nuclear option is close to zero."

I agree completely. There's never been any doubt in my mind that Kim knows exactly what he's doing. He's mobilizing for war, and he's playing games with the non-nuclear proliferation talks to gain time.

But I've noticed something different these last few days. I've written numerous articles about the North Korea nuclear threat on this web site during the last two years, always pointing out the same thing - that Kim is preparing for a preemptive attack on South Korea to reunite Korea under his control.

But this time, I can feel a rising sense of panic going on in the world.

David Brown's scenario is a sign of this. It's very unusual to read or hear such dire warnings in standard news stories in newspapers and television. But not only is this scenario making the rounds, but many people are taking it seriously.

Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said about the scenario when asked, "I'm not sure it is very far-fetched... I think that test could open a Pandora's box, frankly. I do not know what will happen afterwards."

ElBaradei believes that North Korea already has five or six nuclear weapons, and that "It would have disastrous political repercussions. I am not sure how much environmental impact it could have, in terms of radiological fallout. So, I do hope that the North Koreans would absolutely reconsider such a reckless, reckless step."

He's not the only one to use such alarming language. On Sunday, Republican Senator Richard Lugar said he is concerned about reports North Korea appears to be preparing for some kind of nuclear test, adding, "This would be cataclysmic. This really is over the top."

This kind of nervousness and alarming language is a surprise to me.

Some people may chuckle and talk about "the pot calling the kettle black," referring to the alarming language that I often use on this web site. But there are big differences. My analyses, based on the Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology which is now in its third successful year on this web site, may be alarming, but I'm just a little guy that no one listens to.

Arthur Brown, Mohamed ElBaradei and Richard Lugar are "very important people" that most people actually listen to, and when they start using alarming language it's a big deal.

It reminds me of the nervousness in the stock market. As we've described, the stock market has been extremely volatile, reflecting a great deal of nervousness on the part of investors.

Stock market volatility is something that we can measure, and we know from history that stock market crashes are preceded by high volatility.

But nervousness of North Korean nuclear tests is not so easy to measure objectively. But speaking subjectively, something feels very different. At the very least, if people are getting nervous and panicky, it means that it's easy to make miscalculations that could lead to war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a war is coming with 100% certainty. That war might being next week, next month or next year, but it's coming, and probably sooner rather than later.

Incidentally, I'd like to apologize to my regular readers for missing a few days. I'm working day and night on another project, and it should be completed later this week, after which I'll go back to contributing more frequently. (10-May-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-May-05 World becoming panicky over North Korean nuclear test threat

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-May-05
World becoming panicky over North Korean nuclear test threat