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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-May-05
Bird flu virus evolving into form more likely to cause human pandemic

Web Log - May, 2005

Bird flu virus evolving into form more likely to cause human pandemic

New mutations of the virus appear to permit human to human infection, according to a new report by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be issued soon.

The new mutated strains are being found in northern Vietnam, where the worst outbreaks have occurred this year. Until recently, researchers believed that all infections came about from handling poultry, and millions of birds have been culled (killed), as directed by authorities.

However, new strains of the bird flu have characteristics that indicate that "it's possible" that human to human transmission is already occurring, according to WHO research.

The most important of these changes is that the virus is becoming less virulent. Early versions of the virus have killed 75% of those infected, but the new strains are killing fewer people. This is a sign of human to human transmission because a less virulent strain is more likely to be transmitted among humans to large groups of people.

Mutations have caused other changes as well. Asymptomatic infections have been detected, meaning that some people are "carriers" of the disease, but have not developed symptoms. In addition, a wider range of people are being infected than before. These changes are consistent with a virus which is mutating to adapt to human to human transmission, and human pandemic transmission.

Apparently the worst case mutation has not yet occurred. The worst case mutation will occur when one human being gets the bird flu and the ordinary human flu at the same time. The two flu viruses could recombine within a single human body into a new, mutated variant that could have almost the virulence of the bird flu, but with the easy human to human transmission of ordinary human flu.

WHO officials are warning that a major flu pandemic could occur at any time, including this year. We're overdue for a major flu epidemic, and it's possible that a bird flu pandemic would have the same mortality rate as the Spanish Flu of 1918. The major flu epidemics since then are as follows:

    1918 Spanish flu killed 50m
    1957 Asian flu killed about 1m
    1968 Hong Kong flu killed 1m
    2003 Sars killed 774
    2004-5 Bird / Avian flu (H5N1) has killed 50 to date
    Source: BBC

WHO is encouraging government health organizations around the world to prepare for a pandemic, although the time of a pandemic cannot be predicted.

A potential bird flu is relevant to this web site because a bird flu pandemic might trigger a major worldwide financial crisis, and might trigger a major civil war in China. (18-May-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-May-05 Bird flu virus evolving into form more likely to cause human pandemic

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-May-05
Bird flu virus evolving into form more likely to cause human pandemic