	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-May-05
Iraqi Sunni and Shi'ite clerics call for restraint

Web Log - May, 2005

Iraqi Sunni and Shi'ite clerics call for restraint

Analysts, pundits and journalists are still predicting civil war, and they're still getting it wrong.

For two years, journalists, pundits and high-priced analysts have been predicting a civil war in Iraq.

Last August, the Boston Globe reported on the front page that the civil war appeared to have begun.

The predictions of civil war in Iraq have gotten louder in the last few weeks, thanks to the rise in car bombings by insurgents. There were special concerns because the insurgents, who are believed to support the Sunnis, have been targetting Shi'ite clerics.

But nothing of the sort is happening. On Sunday, Iraq's religious factions called for restraint.

The calls were lead by Moqtada al-Sadr. Remember him? He's the Shi'ite cleric who many pundits predicted last year would lead the civil war. But it seems, as I predicted over and over, that he would not lead a civil war because a civil war was impossible.

This is a good example of how the simplest understanding of Generational Dynamics in our newsrooms, our government and other institutions would make a substantial improvement in these people understanding what's going on in the world, and would even prevent some mistakes.

The reason that a civil war is still impossible in Iraq is because Iraq is in a "generational awakening" period. Only one generation has passed since the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and no civil war ever occurs just one generational after a crisis war. The reason is that the people who lived through the war and were traumatized by the war consider the war so horrible that it should never happen again, and they'll do anything to avoid fighting such a war.

As I wrote last year, Iran's awakening period is similar to America's last generational awakening period, which occurred in the 1960s, just one generation past World War II. Generational awakening periods are characterized by political hostility between older and younger generations, but there is no civil war.

Unfortunately, most of the rest of the world is in a "generational crisis period." We're at a unique time in history, 60 years after the end of WW II, and all countries that fought in that war are in crisis periods.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're headed for a "clash of civilizations" world war that will pit Western nations and allies against Muslim nations and allies. Last year, when I wrote about the six most dangerous regions of the world, to identify the regions that might trigger such a war.

However, Iraq is not one of those regions. (23-May-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-May-05 Iraqi Sunni and Shi'ite clerics call for restraint

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-May-05
Iraqi Sunni and Shi'ite clerics call for restraint