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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-May-05
PlayStation 5 will be as powerful as the human brain

Web Log - May, 2005

PlayStation 5 will be as powerful as the human brain

British Telecom Futurologist Ian Pearson looks ahead ten years.

Every five years, a new generation of game consoles comes out, and the time is now.

Microsoft showed off the new XBOX 360 at the annual Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3), at the Los Angeles Convention Centre.

Screen shot for <i>EA Sports Fight Night Round 3</i> for the PS3

Screen shot for EA Sports Fight Night Round 3 for the PS3

And Sony announced the Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3), scheduled for delivery early next year.

Pointing to the specifications of PlayStation 3, futurologist Ian Pearson noted that "[The SP3] is into supercomputer status compared to 10 years ago." Pearson is head of the futurology unit at British Telecom's and Britain's leading thinker on the future.

Pearson highlighted the fact that the SP3 is 35 times more powerful than previous consoles, and did a little math: "The new PlayStation is one per cent as powerful as a human brain. [Therefore,] PlayStation 5 will probably be as powerful as the human brain."

I personally think it's more likely to be PlayStation 6 rather than PS5, but let's not quibble over 5 more years.

He added, "We're already looking at how you might structure a computer that could possibly become conscious. There are quite a lot of us now who believe it's entirely feasible."

That's certainly true. As we discussed in conjunction with the release of the movie I, Robot. Supercomputers will be as intelligent as human beings by 2010 or so, and autonomous super-intelligent desktop or mobile computers will be surging in the 2020s, and will take over a variety of jobs: a computer plumber, a computer nursemaid, a computer soldier.

Even more striking is that the Army is planning to deploy its "Future Combat System" which calls for autonomous robot soldiers by 2014. In fact, the development of super-intelligent computers is proceeding rapidly in countries around the work.

The Singularity

The Singularity

By the 2020s, intelligent robots will also be doing scientific research to develop improved versions of themselves, so that intelligent robots will eventually be far more intelligent than human beings. The point in time where intelligent robots are essentially in control of their own destiny is called "The Singularity," because there will be a bend in the exponential growth technology curve, as shown in the adjoining graphic. There is no way to have any idea what's going to happen to the world after that point.

My own estimate is that the Singularity will occur between 2025 and 2030, though other analysts' estimates put it as late as 2040 or 2050. (27-May-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-May-05 PlayStation 5 will be as powerful as the human brain

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-May-05
PlayStation 5 will be as powerful as the human brain