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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-May-05
The Conflict Risk Index: Depicting the current State of the World

Web Log - May, 2005

The Conflict Risk Index: Depicting the current State of the World

I've been looking for a simple graphic that where we (the world) stand at any given time.

The problem is this: Generational Dynamics tells us that we're headed for a "clash of civilizations" world war with near 100% certainty, but doesn't tell us what will trigger this war. As usual, the Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology tells us our final destination, but not how we'll get there.

To address this problem last year, I wrote an article on The Six Most Dangerous Regions of the World, to identify the regions that might trigger such a war. In that article, I was able to compute the probability of a world war beginning in each year, and I found it to be 22-24% each year for the next five years.

That computation was based on the following assumption: That a regional war in any of the six dangerous regions would be enough to trigger a world war, often because America has defense agreements that commit us to enter many wars. These include agreements with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Europe (NATO), Israel, and Australia and New Zealand (ANZUS).

So, for example, if China attacks Taiwan, or if Syria attacks Israel, then America will be required to enter the war, and the war will spread within a few months to a world war.

In addition, there are two other crises that would almost certainly trigger a world war: A major international financial crisis, and a bird flu epidemic.

Each of these regions and potential crises changes on a regular basis. I wanted to develop a graphic that I could easily update regularly to show the current "State of the World."

I came up with the following graphic:

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

The idea is that this graphic should not change more often than a few times a year.

A second form of the graphic contains textual comments. The comments might change more often, even if the individual risk assessments don't:

Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Rising nationalism and ethnic tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet

Arab Israeli 2 Détente between Sharon and Abbas has eased tensions, but Hizbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran are preparing for war

Russia Caucasus 2 Simmering tensions after Beslan massacre and Ukraine election cools as Putin becomes less overtly belligerent

Kashmir 1 Détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh has significantly eased tensions

China 2 China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence

North Korea 3 Kim Jong-il mobilizing for war at any time against South Korea and Japan

Financial 3 Recent losses in highly leveraged hedge funds are leading to a shakeout that may cause market meltdown

Bird flu 3 World Health Organization warns that pandemic might be imminent

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

As time goes on, I'll update these graphics.

My analysis leads me to conclude that all of these wars and crises will be triggered in time. History tells us that once one of these crises begins (a crisis war in one of the six regions, a major financial crisis, or a bird flu pandemic), then the others will follow in a cascade during the next two to three years.

Finally, I wanted to prepare a retrospective version of this graphic for comparison. This turns out to be hard to do, since you have to adjust your frame of mind to remember how things were at a specific date in the past.

Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 10-Oct-2004

W. Europe 1 Rising tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet

Arab Israeli 2 Arafat's illness is stirring Palestinian strife while Sharon's Gaza withdrawal plan is angering Israelis

Russia Caucasus 3 Simmering tensions after Beslan massacre and Ukraine election cools as Putin becomes less overtly belligerent

Kashmir 2 Détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh is easing tensions

China 2 China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence

North Korea 2 Kim Jong-il is becoming increasingly belligerent, preparing for eventual takeover of South Korea under his control

Financial 1 Unemployment remains high, stocks are rising as the election approaches

Bird flu 2 WHO is downplaying fear of immediate pandemic, but recommends preparation

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

By comparing the two, you can see that the Russia situation has cooled since October, but tensions have increased considerably among China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan. (30-May-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-May-05 The Conflict Risk Index: Depicting the current State of the World

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-May-05
The Conflict Risk Index: Depicting the current State of the World