	Generational Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-May-05
Political earthquake continues, as French decisively reject European Constitution

Web Log - May, 2005

Political earthquake continues, as French decisively reject European Constitution

European nationalism continues to grow as "Preserving national identity" trumps "Europe built around peace"

Stunned politicians throughout Europe are scrambling to cope with the rejection, by an overwhelming 55%-45% vote of the proposed EU Constitution. The rejection was especially convincing in view of the unusually high turnout of 70%, and appears to be part of a mounting European political crisis.

France, the most important founding member of the EU, thus became the first country to reject the European Constitution, which throws the entire Union's future in doubt. The EU can go on as it has before, but this vote will encourage nationalistic feelings in other EU countries.

In particular, another founding country, Holland, will hold a similar referendum on Wednesday, and is also expected to vote NO. Holland has been getting increasingly nationalistic since November 2, when filmmaker Theo van Gogh was murdered by a Muslim extremist.

Countries in Eastern Europe will be especially appalled by the vote. Those who campaigned against ratification in the French referendum used the phrase "Preserving national identity," which are code words for the desire to avoid being in the same Union as 24 other countries. During the campaigning, the low-paid Polish plumber who steals a job away from a well-paid Frenchman became the symbol of the opponents.

That's not surprising. With an unemployment rate above 10 per cent, concern about job security is widespread, and the Constitution, as well as the élite who are promoting it, are easy targets.

Those who campaigned for ratification used the phrase, "Europe built around peace." The clearest statement was a voter was interviewed on the BBC: "My grandfather fought in World War I. My father fought in World Wars I and II. I fought in World War II. And now, for 60 years, my children and grandchildren have lived in peace. That's a good enough reason to me to vote 'yes' on the Constitution."

From this statement, you might have guessed what the BBC reported about pre-election polls: They showed that the only age group that was polling in favor of the Constitution was the elderly. These were people who grew up during WW II and lived through the horror and terror of the war with Germany. For these people, another war must be avoided at all costs.

The Generational Dynamics theory is based on the observation that generations born after a crisis war have a completely different world view from those who grew up during a crisis war. We're seeing that generational difference manifest itself in this referendum.

Some analysts are predicting that the French will come to their senses, and the Constitution will be ratified in a new referendum to be held next year. But that's nonsense. There's a generational change going on, as the generations that still have a personal memory of WW II are quickly dying off, replaced by new generations that are more worried about their jobs than about war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Europe is headed for a new crisis war. This should be no surprise to anyone who's read European history of the last 1000 years. We do not yet know how countries will choose sides in this war, but right now it looks pretty certain that England and France will have yet another war with one another. (30-May-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-May-05 Political earthquake continues, as French decisively reject European Constitution

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-May-05
Political earthquake continues, as French decisively reject European Constitution