	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jul-05
After President Bush's speech: What next for Iraq?

Web Log - July, 2005

After President Bush's speech: What next for Iraq?

With growing insurgency violence and flagging public support, what's America's "end strategy" in Iraq?

The relentless stream of car bombings and suiciding bombings is having its impact on American public opinion. Recent polls show that Americans are slightly in favor of setting a withdrawal deadling.

I heard some college professor discussing the situation in Iraq on WBUR, a PBS station in Boston. He was saying that the anti-war movement is finally growing. He said that we know from the Vietnam and Korean wars that once the anti-war movement picks up, it keeps getting bigger. I had to laugh at this wishful thinking. The political conflict during the 1960s was caused by a "generation gap," with anti-war students rebelling against their pro-war parents. Today there's absolutely no "generation gap" whatsoever; any political disagreement is red-state versus blue state (vertical) rather than generational (horizontal). So there's no growing antiwar movement.

Still, there's a lot of political pressure these days for a strategy to withdraw our troops from Iraq within one or two years.

However, this isn't the first time we're heard this.

Last year, syndicated columnist Robert Novak, wrote a column (September 20), which said that the Bush administration is planning a quick exit from Iraq in 2005. At that time, just prior to the Presidential election, there was much discussion of this option.

According to Novak, his Bush administration sources had told him confidentially that President Bush plans to begin withdrawing from Iraq after the January, 2005, elections in Iraq. He explained this view further on Meet the Press by saying that the Bush administration has concluded that the American public cannot stand the continued terrorist beheadings and armed forces casualties.

Novak claimed that his contacts in the John Kerry election team had reached the same conclusion, if Kerry wins the election. The result, according to Novak, was that American troops would withdraw from Iraq in 2005 no matter who wins.

Well, here it is June, 2005, the January elections are over, and there's no withdrawal, no withdrawal in the works, no public demand for a withdrawal, and no outrage over President Bush's clear refusal to set a withdrawal deadline. There are no riots on college campuses, as there were in the 60s, no "Summer of love," and no "days of rage."

Last year, I wrote an analysis of the option of withdrawing from Iraq, and that analysis has held up pretty well - I'd barely change a word.

Bringing that analysis up to date, here are the major points:

There will be no civil war in Iraq, as I've been saying on this web site repeatedly for the last 2 1/2 years. Pundits, journalists and college professors have been predicting a civil war almost daily, and still predict it even now, but a civil war in Iraq is impossible, because Iraq is in a "generational awakening" period, just one generation past the end of the genocidal Iran/Iraq crisis war, and no civil war ever happens at such a time.

If you want to understand what's happening in Iraq today, the "gold standard" historical comparison is to Iraq's last generational awakening period: the mid-1940s. At that time, Britain had control of two air bases in Iraq, but massive student demonstrations forced Britain to withdraw in 1948. There was no civil war, and civil order was maintained for the most part, but there was a great deal of political instability. Iraq today is exactly the same.

So when will we withdraw from Iraq? As time goes on it becomes more and more likely that we'll remain in Iraq until the "clash of civilizations" world war begins, probably in the next 2-4 years. At that point, 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq will turn out in retrospect to have been the opening rounds of the new world war. (1-Jul-05) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jul-05 After President Bush's speech: What next for Iraq?

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jul-05
After President Bush's speech: What next for Iraq?