	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Jul-05
Sandra Day O'Connor steps down from Supreme Court

Web Log - July, 2005

Sandra Day O'Connor steps down from Supreme Court

It's a crisis moment that could ignite a "political civil war"

In announcing on Friday O'Connor's decision to step down, President Bush said: "The nation deserves and I will select a supreme court justice that Americans can be proud of. The nation also deserves a dignified process of confirmation in the United States Senate, characterised by fair treatment, a fair hearing and a fair vote."

This statement by the President was a political warning to the Senate Democrats not to use the weapon of filibusters to prevent his nomination to receive a vote.

Democrats responded immediately. Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, held a joint news conference minutes later saying they reserve the right to use the filibuster to block a nominee from ever getting a confirmation vote. “If the president abuses his power and nominates someone who threatens to roll back the rights and freedoms of the American people, then the American people will insist that we oppose that nominee and we intend to do so,” Kennedy said.

As I've said many times on this website, when a country enters a "generational crisis" period, the great mass of people become increasingly confrontational and less willing to compromise. This unwillingness to compromise occurs in international politics, as we've seen in the European Union, and in national politics. Generational Dynamics predicts that American politics will become increasingly bilious and conflicted, reaching what might be called a "political civil war."

This is what happens during crisis periods. In the case of the Civil War, the political civil war became a real civil war.

During the 1930s crisis period, the political bitterness created a major Constitutional crisis, and it occurred when the President tried to "pack" the Supreme Court.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt was furious at the Supreme Court for finding many of his New Deal laws unconstitutional, mostly on 5-4 votes. Most of the Justices had been appointed by Republicans, and FDR was furious at them. He came up with a complex scheme to increase the size of the Court, allowing him to appoint additional justices who would support his policies. The attempt failed, and in fact turned out to be a political fiasco, but it illustrates how vitriolic the politics can get during generational crisis periods.

Today, many Democrats are furious at the Supreme Court for its decisions in the 2000 Presidential election which led to George Bush becoming President instead of Al Gore.

The vitriol over replacing Justice O'Connor will center on four big issues: abortion, the death penalty, religious expression, and legal protections for gays and lesbians.

Now, take a look at that list of four issues, and think of how irrelevant they are. We have China mobilizing for war with the goals of reuniting with Taiwan and to challenge American military capabilities throughout the Pacific, leading to an inevitable world war. We have a mutating bird flu virus which could turn into a worldwide pandemic with a day or two, killing tens or hundreds of millions of people worldwide.

So instead of uniting the country and preparing people for what's coming. the important Washington politicians are going to spend their time arguing whether it's ok to post the Ten Commandments in a government building. When I was a kid in the 50s, we used to think of Washington politicians as buffoons. More and more, I'm beginning to remember why. (2-Jul-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Jul-05 Sandra Day O'Connor steps down from Supreme Court

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Jul-05
Sandra Day O'Connor steps down from Supreme Court