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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jul-05

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Bird flu poised to spread to birds world wide

Bird flu poised to spread to birds world wide

Migratory geese are now infected and spreading bird flu, and thousands have died.

Thousands of dead bird have been found at Lake Qinghaihu, a protected nature reserve in western China, according to Chinese scientists.

"The occurrence of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus infection in migrant waterfowl indicates that this virus has the potential to be a global threat," Jinhua Liu of China Agricultural University, George Gao of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and colleagues wrote in their report in Science.

"Lake Qinghaihu is a breeding center for migrant birds that congregate from Southeast Asia, Siberia, Australia and New Zealand."

DNA analysis reveals that virus is a slight mutation of the virus that killed a few dozen people in Vietnam, and that all of the birds were infected by a single bird that flew in, presumably from Vietnam. This means that the virus is now poised to spread to birds in other countries, and then worldwide.

The original virus killed only chickens. A later mutation also infected ducks, though with little harm to the ducks, who showed no symptoms but were carriers of the disease.

This is the first time that the virus has infected and killed wild migratory birds, indicating that the lethal virus is jumping to new species.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005
W. Europe	1	Arab Israeli	2
Russia Caucasus	2	Kashmir	1
China	2	North Korea	3
Financial	3	Bird flu	3
Key: 1=Low risk 2=Med 3=High 4=Active

Although the virus has infected and killed humans, humans have only been infected by birds, as far as scientists know. This will change when the virus mutates again so that humans be infected by other humans. At that point, it will quickly spread worldwide, and probably kill hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next two or three years. This is the worst case mutation, and will occur when one human being gets the bird flu and the ordinary human flu at the same time. The two flu viruses could recombine within a single human body into a new, mutated variant that could have almost the virulence of the bird flu, but with the easy human to human transmission of ordinary human flu. (7-Jul-05) Permanent Link
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