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The six-party talks will start the week of July 25, thirteen months after the last round, after which North Korea canceled all further talks.
The six parties include South Korea, China, Japan and Russia, as well as North Korea and the U.S.
North Korea has used the 13 month hiatus to make substantial progress in its nuclear weapon development program, and is now believed to have several nuclear weapons in its inventory. As I wrote in my Feb. 10 analysis, North Korea has been mobilizing for war since last April, and appeared to be manipulating the nuclear non-proliferation talks to gain time for its nuclear weapons program. North Korea's behavior since 2002, when it first announced its intention to develop nuclear technology, follows a typical historical pattern of countries that are about launch a pre-emptive crisis war. The only thing we don't know is President Kim Jong-il's timing.
The possibility that North Korea may be close to conducting a nuclear test has caused a high level of nervousness and panic around the world.
However, this all comes at a time when North Korea has been facing a severe food shortages in years.
According to news reports, North Korea wants the U.S. to provide fuel and food, sign a non-aggression pact, build a nuclear reactor and open diplomatic relations. North Korea may thus see a return to the talks at this time as a way to gain substantial financial benefit. The U.S. is going to ask North Korea to destroy it's nuclear arsenal, but pigs will fly before that happens.
It may be that North Korea plans to use the talks to get food, fuel
and money in return for not conducting a nuclear test in the near
future.
(9-Jul-05)
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