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Unfortunately, that's not good news.
A couple of years ago, oil sold for $25-30 a barrel. Today the price exceeds $60 a barrel. It seems that the worse the economic news is, the higher the stock market goes, and today the S&P 500 index neared a four-year high.
"On balance, things are going well, but the mood is still very, very guarded," Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors, said of stocks. "Confidence in the market is improving, but it's improving in very small steps because there's still risks out there, like oil prices."
As I've been writing on this web site since 2002, we're entering a new 1930s style Great Depression, as payment for the 1990s stock market bubble.
This view was supported last weekend by an article in Barron's, as I wrote about yesterday. That article confirms that the stock market is overvalued by 100%, from which one can only conclude that a major stock market crash is in the offing.
In 2002, when the stock market was around Dow 8000, I had hoped that
stocks would keep falling gradually to the Dow 4000 level, since that
would do the least damage to the US and world economy. However, that
hasn't happened, and stocks have returned to extremely high bubble
levels. The crash is coming with 100% certainty, and when it does,
it will do enormous damage.
(11-Jul-05)
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