	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-05
Israel strikes at Hamas in Gaza, after Hamas launches massive rocket attack against Israel

Web Log - July, 2005

Israel strikes at Hamas in Gaza, after Hamas launches massive rocket attack against Israel

The Palestinian Authority declared a state of emergency in Gaza on Friday, after a series of violent escalations.

Israel and the United States have called on Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to crack down on the Palestinian militants, who killed six Israelis this week - five in a suicide bombing in Netanya and one in a rocket attack near Gaza.

The suicide bombing occurred in Tuesday, when an 18-year-old Palestinian approached a West Bank shopping mall and blew himself up.

On the Gaza side, Hamas-led militias launched at least 53 missiles against Israeli targets on Thursday and Friday afternoons. according to Israeli sources.

The Palestinian Authority tried to use force to restrain Hamas, but they were outnumbered by the Hamas forces. After that, Israel took matters into its own hands, and launched air strikes that killed militans from the Hamas organization.

Israel is fulfilling it's promise, made in mid-June, to resume targeting Hamas militants, if the Palestinian Authority can't control them.

The last crisis war to occur in this region was the genocidal Jewish-Arab war of the late 1940s. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Palestine region has been replaying the events of the 1930s and 1940s that led to a massive regional war. The earlier conflict began in 1936 with rock throwing. The level of violence increased over the years until the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of Israel in 1948 triggered a full-scale crisis war.

Today's conflict could be said to have started with the first Intifada in 1989. The level of violence increased significantly with the second Intifada that began in 2000, and has been increasing ever since.

Since 2002, I've been predicting that the genocidal 1940s Arab-Jewish war will be refought, and will engulf the entire region. Generational Dynamics predicts that such a war will occur again, with near 100% certainty. What will trigger the renewed war is not yet known, but it could happen tomorrow, next month, next year, or in two or three years. Since 2002 I've been saying that I consider the most likely time to be within two years following the disappearance (through death or retirement) of Yasser Arafat.

Following Arafat's death on Nov 14, 2004, the entire world, in a "state of denial" as usual, heralded the new era of Mideast peace and tranquility, especially after Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, took "bold steps" to bring peace, after being elected Palestinian Authority president. As I said at the time, nothing has changed: Generational Dynamics still predicts a new Mideast crisis war, with 100% uncertainty.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

For me, only one question remains: Has the situation in the Mideast now gotten so bad that it's time to raise the risk level in my risk level graphic from 2=yellow to 3=red ?

Right now I'm leaving it where it is, because Mahmoud Abbas is still making a grand effort to bring peace to the region. But when the violence worsens, or if Abbas is "eliminated," then the graphic will be changed. (15-Jul-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-05 Israel strikes at Hamas in Gaza, after Hamas launches massive rocket attack against Israel

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-05
Israel strikes at Hamas in Gaza, after Hamas launches massive rocket attack against Israel