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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jul-05
China and Japan head for military confrontation over disputed islands.

Web Log - July, 2005

China and Japan head for military confrontation over disputed islands.

Meanwhile, a Chinese general threatens America with nuclear war over Taiwan.

In a move which could not have done anything besides infuriate the Chinese, Japan's government has awarded test drilling rights to a private Japanese company in an area of the East China Sea claimed by both Japan and China.

For centuries Japan and China have disputed the ownership of a small island chain called the Senkaku Islands by the Japanese and the Diaoyu Islands by the Chinese. The islands are little more than rocks in the middle of the sea, but they are valuable because of a potential oil field there.

In the past few months, Chinese rage at Japan has been growing over a variety of issues, leading to a series of anti-Japan riots and demonstrations in China in April.

The United Nations had planned to arbitrate the dispute by 2009, but Japanese is going ahead with test drilling anyway, in order to gain leverage in the discussions.

As a separate issue, General Zhu Chenghu, a top-level officer in China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) threatened America with nuclear war if America interfered with Taiwan.

Speaking to a group of foreign journalists, General Zhu said,

"If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond. We ... will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."

China has long promised never to be the first to use nuclear weapons, but General Zhu's remarks, if confirmed by Beijing, would represent a reversal of that policy. (Xian is an ancient city in central China.)

As I've said many times before on this web site, China has the largest army in the world, and is quickly militarizing and arming itself to the teeth with high technology weapons. China has repeatedly vowed to capture Taiwan by force, if necessary, and the conflict over the East China Sea islands will provide them with an excuse to attack Japan as well. Meanwhile, China is internally coming apart at the seams, and any external conflict could be the trigger that launches a major civil war in China.

Generational Dynamics predicts that these wars will occur with 100% certainly. These wars will occur sooner or later, and with the level of verbal conflict rising constantly, it's sure to be sooner. (16-Jul-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jul-05 China and Japan head for military confrontation over disputed islands.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jul-05
China and Japan head for military confrontation over disputed islands.