	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-05
U.N. predicts severe North Korea famine this fall

Web Log - August, 2005

U.N. predicts severe North Korea famine this fall

This could be a reason why North Korea is close to preemptive war.

A million people are already forced to forage for grasses and acorns, and that number will increase to over 3 million by the end of the year, according to a statement by James Morris, executive director of the UN's World Food Program.

A shortfall of donations this year to the WFP has made the problem critical.

“This year’s food crisis in the North has been exceptionally severe owing to an acute lack of affordable local staples, not least because of record-high cereal prices in private markets,” says Morris.

Indeed, world food prices have been skyrocketing in the last five years. While inflation has risen just 9% since 2000, wheat has increased 20-50% in prices, oats 30%, and rye 50%. Other food prices have risen comparably. (See previous weblog item, below.)

These food price increases are creating poverty, starvation and malnutrition among huge numbers of additional people around the world.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the massive increasing starvation in North Korea is a signal that war may be approaching.

The reason is simple: When millions of men are unable to feed themselves or their families, then they have nothing to lose by going to war. In many cases, joining the army is the best way to get regular meals, as well as a salary to send home.

This is especially true during generational crisis periods, which North Korea and most other nations of the world have entered, 60 years after the end of WW II.

During a generational crisis period, a war can become forced on the government. The starving people of North Korea are not going to tolerate starvation for long, and they'll turn against the government. The government, faced with the possibilty of civil war, will deflect the war against other enemies -- Japan, South Korea, America, etc., in this case.

The nuclear non-proliferation talks with North Korea are not getting anywhere, and there never was any chance that they would. One commentator describes the talks as a "charade masquerading as diplomacy," and as an "international diplomatic game in which North Korea pretends to consider denuclearizing, while five other countries at the table pretend to believe Pyongyang is serious." It's likely that the only reason that North Korea rejoined the talks in the first place was in the hope of getting further financial and food aid from China, South Korea and America.

North Korea has been mobilizing for war for over a year now, and recently began blocking international communications.

If WFP director Morris is correct that three million will be starving by winter, then it's hard to see how the country can remain stable for long. (10-Aug-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-05 U.N. predicts severe North Korea famine this fall

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-05
U.N. predicts severe North Korea famine this fall