	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Aug-05
BBC warns that bird flu pandemic can cause 1930s style Great Depression

Web Log - August, 2005

BBC warns that bird flu pandemic can cause 1930s style Great Depression

Developed countries will suffer the most, according to the BBC World Service "analysis" segment for August 25, 2005.

A global human pandemic would cause "worldwide economic mayhem," which would result in economic hardships similar to the 1930s Great Depression, according to the report.

People in developed countries will suffer the most because these people do not have the ordinary day-to-day survival skills, such as using backyard gardens to feed their families, that people in less developed countries have had to learn for survival.

The bird flu has not yet mutated to a form that can easily spread from human to human, but that mutation appears to be all but certain, and may occur next week, next month or next year. Such a mutation would trigger a worldwide pandemic that would kill hundreds of millions of people, similar to the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is the kind of linkage we've discussed frequently.

A regional war in any of The Six Most Dangerous Regions of the World would trigger a world war because America and other countries would immediately be forced by existing treaties and identity group relationships to enter such a war.

A major financial crisis is coming anyway, because the true value of the stock market is at Dow 4500, meaning that stocks are overpriced by over 100%. This can easily be seen by looking at standard price/earnings ratios.

A war would certainly trigger a financial crisis, but a financial crisis would almost certainly trigger a war. One of many possible scenarios is this: China's economy and society are unraveling, as the country heads for a certain civil war, and an international financial crisis would certainly trigger it. China would react by attacking Taiwan or Japan, leading to the world war we've discussed.

Now we can throw bird flu into the mix. A bird flu pandemic would trigger the financial crisis that would trigger the world war. (For those who accuse me of being too gloomy, here's an "optimistic" scenario: The bird flu may kill one or two billion people, reducing the population available for a world war.)

A world war could not directly trigger a bird flu pandemic, but it might do so indirectly as follows: A world war would result in a breakdown in the enforcement of worldwide health protocols that are designed to prevent the spread of contagious diseases, and in particular, infected birds will no longer be culled (killed) as they have been in the past. This will create an environment in which the bird flu can mutate more quickly and easily, and so a bird flu pandemic is more likely to spread quickly.

So we have 8 different risk factors in my "conflict risk level" graphic (shown above). These risk factors are roughly independent as long as none of risks has been realized; but they're interdependent in the sense that the realization of any one of the risk factors could trigger all the others within one or two years. (25-Aug-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Aug-05 BBC warns that bird flu pandemic can cause 1930s style Great Depression

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Aug-05
BBC warns that bird flu pandemic can cause 1930s style Great Depression