	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Sep-05
With Israelis almost gone, Gaza is becoming increasingly violent and unstable

Web Log - September, 2005

With Israelis almost gone, Gaza is becoming increasingly violent and unstable

Especially ominous is the planned intervention by Egypt as border guards.

There's almost constant violence now. Over the weekend, hundreds of unemployed Palestinian protesters threw missiles and fire bombs. In the subsequent confrontation with the police, at least ten people were injured.

Then on Monday, a mysterious explosion destroyed a house and killed four Hamas supporters, injuring 30 others. Apparently it was an accidental explosion occurring as Hamas was building a bomb.

The explosion came three days after Hamas publicly announced its leadership, in a kind of press release. Palestinian militia group Hamas has never agreed to seek peace with Israel, and their charter calls for the destruction of Israel.

Actually, Hamas appears poised to take full control of Gaza, as they're expected to do well in Parliamentary elections to be held on January 6, thus pushing aside Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority in Gaza.

Even within the Palestinian Authority, things are not well. Moussa Arafat, a cousin of the late PA President Yassir Arafat, was brutally murdered on Wednesday and his son was kidnapped. A PA splinter group took credit for the crime.

This increasing chaos is happening in the context of Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza. All Jewish settlements in Gaza have been emptied, leaving behind only the IDF (the Israeli Defense Forces - the army). The IDF will start leaving on Saturday, and should be gone completely by Monday.

That leaves two problems. The first problem is that someone has to police the violent militia groups left behind in Gaza. In the original plan, the Palestinian Authority was supposed to do that, but the events of the last few days show that the PA is part of the problem, not part of the solution.

The other problem is this: Who's going to guard the boundary between Gaza and Egypt? The IDF has been controlling the border up until now, controlling the flow of weapons and terrorists from Egypt into Gaza. With the IDF leaving, who will take their place?

The answer is that, by previous agreement, Egyptian forces will be deployed along the Egypt - Gaza border, and this is extremely significant.

After the 1967 non-crisis war involving the Palestinians, Egypt and Israel, Egypt pulled out of the Palestine region completely. The reason was simple: With Egypt out of the region, there's less chance of a new war between Egypt and Israel. True, there was another non-crisis war in 1972 (the "seven day war"), but there's been no war since then. For the same reason, America has resisted putting any of its troops into the Palestine region, despite numerous requests from various international factions to do so over the decades.

This is typical of what happens during "generational awakening" and "generational unraveling" periods. People and nations try to avoid problems by compromise and containment. There's no desire for another crisis war, and any simple step that can be taken to prevent one is often adopted.

But now Israel and the Palestinians are into a new generational crisis period, and Egypt is entering one as well. There is much less interest in compromise and containment, and much less fear of confrontation.

I explained all this in a different way, in terms of "chaotic attractors," when I discussed the Jewish withdrawals from Gaza. These concepts explain why Gaza is headed for war, while a civil war in Iraq is impossible at this time, despite what the pundits say.

As an aside, there isn't a single other web site on the internet that's been getting it right, in both Palestine and Iraq. I've made hundreds of predictions on this web site in the past three years, and so far not a single one has been wrong. Other pundits, politicians, journalists, web sites, and high-priced analysts repeatedly predicted civil war in Iraq and also predicted peace in Palestine once Yassir Arafat died, but this web site's predictions are the only ones that are coming true, based on the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology. If you want to know what's really going on in the world, then forget the various "forecasting" and "early warning" web sites -- they're based on guesswork -- and come to this web site.

So anyway, Egyptian forces are now being ejected into the mix, and now there are only a few short miles separating the IDF from the Egyptian forces, leaving the possibility of miscalculation that can bring the two sides to a small military confrontation that can quickly spiral into a major military confrontation.

The last crisis war between Jews and Arabs was the extremely violent, genocidal war of the late 1940s, when the United Nations partitioned Palestine and created the state of Israel. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're heading for a major new Mideast war, replaying the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs in the 1940s, and engulfing the entire region. (8-Sep-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Sep-05 With Israelis almost gone, Gaza is becoming increasingly violent and unstable

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Sep-05
With Israelis almost gone, Gaza is becoming increasingly violent and unstable