	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Sep-05
Gaza strip descending into further chaos and lawlessness following Israeli withdrawal

Web Log - September, 2005

Gaza strip descending into further chaos and lawlessness following Israeli withdrawal

Black market prices for weapons have been falling sharply in Gaza, in the clearest sign that weapons are pouring into Gaza, now that the Israelis have completely withdrawn.

According to an article by the Associated Press, the price of an AK-47 assault rifle has dropped from around Ł1,000 (€1,484) to around Ł650 (€965), and Egyptian-made pistols that were recently sold in Gaza for Ł700 (€1,039)can now be bought for as little as Ł90 (€133).

The weapons are evidently pouring into Gaza from Egypt. Egypt had promised to keep the border between Gaza and Egypt closed, once the Israeli border guards had withdrawn, but Egyptian border guards have been unable to secure the border.

Thousands of Palestinians immediately crossed the border into Egypt for shopping and recreation as soon as the Israelis withdrew. Egypt has promised to close the border again, but Palestinian militant group Hamas has thwarted such efforts by blowing a hole in the concrete barrier separating the two regions.

Looting and gunfights have become commonplace throughout the Gaza strip in the last few days. On Tuesday, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas promised to restore order, saying "We have one law for everyone and no one is above the law. We are not going to tolerate chaos after today."

However, Gaza has been getting increasingly violent and unstable for a while now, and it appears less and less likely that Abbas will be able to restore any semblance of order.

It's particularly ironic that Palestinian police have been unable to stop the looting of 4,000 greenhouses left behind by the Israelis. These greenhouses had been central to the plan to provide jobs and income to Gazans.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

There are now multitudes of ways that miscalculations can lead to a regional war. Egypt has obligated itself to close the border with Gaza. It cannot do so without taking military action against Palestinians in general and Hamas in particular, but such military action against Arabs could trigger violence in both Gaza and Egypt.

If Egypt does not or cannot close the border, then Israel may feel it necessary to intervene. This would bring Egyptian and Israeli forces into contact with one another for the first time since the 1972 war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there would be a big difference between 1972 and today, if Egyptian and Israeli forces engage one another. In 1972, both countries were in a generational awakening period, and awakening wars have little energy. Thus, the 1972 war ended in just 7 days. Today, both countries are entering (or are in) a generational crisis period, where young people with no personal memories of the 1940s genocidal war between Jews and Arabs do not fear a new war.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a new genocidal crisis war that will engulf the entire region. This war may begin next week, next month, next year or soon thereafter. (14-Sep-05) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Sep-05 Gaza strip descending into further chaos and lawlessness following Israeli withdrawal

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Sep-05
Gaza strip descending into further chaos and lawlessness following Israeli withdrawal