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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-05
Indonesia nearing panic as bird flu spreads

Web Log - September, 2005

Indonesia nearing panic as bird flu spreads

There's mass confusion in Jakarta over possible human to human contamination.

According to yesterday's surveillance report by the United Nations World Health Organization (WHO), an 8 year old hospitalized boy has been confirmed positive for the bird flu. The WHO report downplays the likelihood of of human to human transmission, but leaves the question open.

News reports have not been nearly as sanguine. The boy is the nephew of a woman who died of bird flu on Sept. 16. He had contact with his aunt after she became ill, and developed symptoms shortly thereafter.

It seems pretty likely that the boy caught it from his aunt, indicating human to human transmission.

Jakarta, one of the most densely populated cities in the world, is beginning to panic. Five people in Jakarta have died recently of the bird flu. On Wednesday, a five year old girl died, having bird flu symptoms; a DNA analysis will reveal next week whether it was the actual bird flu.

Malaysia, Indonesia's neighbor, is beginning to close down the border between the two countries, in order to try to stop the spread.

So the question of whether there's human to human transmission in Jakarta is confusing, but that isn't the half of it.

A major Jakarta zoo was closed on Monday, after 19 birds tested positive for bird flu. A number of people who visited the zoo prior to its closing have been admitted to the hospital showing symptoms of bird flu. Test results will be available next week.

Even more serious, over 115 patients have developed mild bird flu symptions in the last couple of days, but were refused treatment because of lack of beds and because the symptoms were mild.

The Recombinomics web site, which posts analyses of current events in the progression of bird flu, has been wondering whether Jakarta and WHO have been hiding the seriousness of the situation.

According to Recombinomics, the bird flu has become a Phase 5 pandemic and appears to be close to Phase 6. WHO classifies it as Phase 4.

The phases have been defined to show how close a new virus is to a general pandemic. Here are the last few phases:

Phase 3

Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

Until more testing is done, there's no way to tell whether something has changed in the last few days. It's possible that the current storm will pass, when all the tests are in, or it's possible that the tests will reveal the first stages of a real bird flu panemic.

As with most things in life, there's no way to tell what's going to happen now. That there'll be a pandemic is certain, but whether it will occur next week is far from certain. A lot will depend on what happens with those 115 patients who weren't treated. If it turns out that they all have bird flu, then we have an pandemic; if all they have is the sniffles, then the pandemic will be postponed for a while.

In my opinion, if you've been planning to make some sort of preparations in advance of a bird flu pandemic, such as purchasing face masks or something, now is the time to do it. (23-Sep-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-05 Indonesia nearing panic as bird flu spreads

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-05
Indonesia nearing panic as bird flu spreads